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This Bitcoin Momentum Signal Preceded Last October’s Crash — Another Downturn Incoming?
After a steep downturn in early February, the Bitcoin price saw a significant turnaround over the following two months. While the month of May initially continued on this positive note, the premier cryptocurrency seems to have cooled off over the past week — aligning with BTC’s track record of not registering three consecutive months of positive price action during a bear-market year. Interestingly, recent on-chain observations suggest that trouble might be brewing for the Bitcoin price, at least in the near term. Could The Bears Take Over The Bitcoin Market Again? In a new post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Bitcoin Vector explained that the current waning bullish momentum might be a more damning signal for Bitcoin than it is perceived to be. According to the market intelligence firm, BTC’s price momentum doesn’t have to turn deeply negative before investors pay attention. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks 14-Year Support For The First Time In History, Analyst Predicts $50,000 Target Bitcoin Vector highlighted that the Glassnode momentum indicator, which measures the speed and strength of price movements (in a specific direction) within a period, has witnessed a sharp downturn in recent days. The analytics platform noted that while the focus would be on the momentum turning negative, the +0.5 mark is the level to watch. According to Bitcoin Vector’s analysis, price momentum crossing below +0.5 is the first signal that the upward trend might be fading and sellers might be overtaking the market. The analytics firm revealed that the last two times the flagship cryptocurrency lost this critical level, the BTC price structure shifted. Those last two times include: October 2025, when the Bitcoin price suddenly crashed to just above $100,000, and February 2026, when the market leader fell to around $62,000. Bitcoin Vector noted that these moves were characterized by a weakened spot CVD (cumulative volume delta), a return of seller control, and a deteriorating price structure. Recent on-chain data show that price momentum remains above +0.5 — albeit at around +0.7. “But if it loses that level while Spot CVD keeps weakening, caution rises fast. That would be the first signal that deterioration is starting beneath the surface,” Bitcoin concluded. Ultimately, the world’s largest cryptocurrency seems to be at a critical juncture, with the waning price momentum potentially signaling what is to come over the next few weeks. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $75,950, reflecting an over 2% price decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Trendline Resistance Is Holding Price Back, Can It Push It Below $60,000? Analyst Answers Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

NewsBTC 2026-05-23 13:00
Bitcoin Rally Loses Steam as Key Resistance Holds, Analyst Warns of Possible Correction
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Rally Loses Steam as Key Resistance Holds, Analyst Warns of Possible Correction Bitcoin’s recent price rebound appears to be losing upward momentum, with on-chain analysis firm XWIN Japan Research warning that the rally may be running out of steam. In a report published on CryptoQuant, the firm highlighted that BTC’s recovery from its April low to a brief peak of $82,000 was driven more by speculative futures activity than by genuine spot market demand. Resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average The analysis pointed to a critical technical signal: Bitcoin faced strong resistance near its 200-day moving average, which currently sits around $82,400. This level has historically acted as a key barrier during bull cycles. According to XWIN Japan Research, the pattern closely resembles the market structure seen in March 2022, when BTC staged a sharp rebound, only to reverse into a prolonged downtrend after failing to break above the same moving average. Futures-Driven Rally Fades The report noted that the initial price surge was largely fueled by long positions in the futures market. However, once those positions were liquidated above $80,000, buying pressure weakened considerably. Simultaneously, growth in spot demand has slowed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had seen significant net inflows earlier this month, have now recorded consecutive days of net outflows, signaling a shift in investor sentiment. What This Means for Bitcoin Investors For traders and long-term holders, the key takeaway is that the recent price action may not be sustainable without stronger spot market participation. The combination of weakening futures demand and slowing ETF inflows suggests that institutional interest may be cooling. If the correction continues, the $70,000 level is identified as the next major support zone, according to the analysis. Conclusion While Bitcoin’s recovery from April lows offered a brief respite for bulls, the underlying market dynamics remain fragile. The failure to break above the 200-day moving average, coupled with declining spot demand and ETF outflows, raises the risk of a deeper pullback. Investors should monitor the $70,000 support level closely, as a break below that could signal a more significant trend reversal. FAQs Q1: Why is the 200-day moving average important for Bitcoin? It is a widely watched technical indicator that often acts as a support or resistance level. A failure to break above it can signal a loss of bullish momentum and potentially lead to a price decline. Q2: What is the difference between spot buying and futures buying? Spot buying involves purchasing the actual asset, while futures buying involves contracts that speculate on future price movements. Futures-driven rallies are often less sustainable because they rely on leverage and can unwind quickly. Q3: What are the implications of Bitcoin ETF outflows? Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest that institutional investors are reducing their exposure, which can put downward pressure on the price and signal a shift in market sentiment. This post Bitcoin Rally Loses Steam as Key Resistance Holds, Analyst Warns of Possible Correction first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

Bitcoin World 2026-05-23 11:25
Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000: Market Reaction and Key Levels to Watch
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000: Market Reaction and Key Levels to Watch Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $75,000 threshold, a key psychological and technical level for the cryptocurrency market. According to Bitcoin World market monitoring, BTC is currently trading at $74,887 on the Binance USDT market, marking a notable decline from recent trading ranges. Market Context and Immediate Triggers The drop below $75,000 comes amid a period of heightened volatility across global financial markets. While the exact catalyst for this move is still being assessed by analysts, several factors are converging: ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, shifts in institutional positioning, and profit-taking after Bitcoin’s recent rally from lower levels. The $75,000 level has historically acted as both a support and resistance zone, making its breach significant for short-term traders. Implications for Traders and Investors For active traders, the break below $75,000 opens the possibility of further downside toward the next major support zone, which many analysts identify near $72,000 to $73,000. Conversely, a quick recovery above $75,000 could signal a false breakdown and renewed buying interest. Long-term holders may view this as a buying opportunity, though caution remains warranted given the current market sentiment. Broader Market Impact The decline in Bitcoin often influences the broader cryptocurrency market, with altcoins typically experiencing amplified moves. Ethereum, Solana, and other major tokens have also seen price pressure in tandem with BTC. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has contracted accordingly, though the long-term narrative around digital assets as an alternative store of value remains intact. Conclusion Bitcoin’s fall below $75,000 is a significant development that warrants close monitoring. The coming hours and days will be critical in determining whether this is a temporary pullback or the start of a deeper correction. Investors are advised to stay informed, manage risk carefully, and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term price action. FAQs Q1: Why did Bitcoin drop below $75,000? A: The exact reason is still unfolding, but contributing factors include macroeconomic uncertainty, profit-taking, and shifts in institutional sentiment. The $75,000 level was a key support that, once broken, triggered further selling. Q2: What is the next support level for Bitcoin? A: Many analysts identify the next major support zone between $72,000 and $73,000. A sustained break below that could lead to further declines toward $70,000. Q3: Should I buy Bitcoin now that it’s below $75,000? A: Investment decisions depend on individual risk tolerance and time horizon. Short-term traders should watch for confirmation of support, while long-term investors may consider dollar-cost averaging. It is advisable to consult with a financial advisor and avoid emotional trading. This post Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000: Market Reaction and Key Levels to Watch first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

Bitcoin World 2026-05-23 11:15
Bitcoin Slumps Again to $74K as Bearish Market Structure Intensifies
Bitcoin’s price troubles seem to have no end currently, as the asset just posted yet another leg down that drove it to a monthly low of just over $74,000. This comes as popular analyst CW claimed that retail investors have been disposing of their assets, while whales have set up buy orders that can absorb the pressure. Bearish Market Structure Returns After losing $8,000 in just over a week, many analysts have turned the page on their price analysis. Jelle, for example, warned that BTC has dropped below both the 100D and 50D Moving Averages as the local market structure is “back to bearish.” Previously, the analyst cautioned that a price drop beneath both these crucial levels could open the door for a more profound correction as “there’s a lot of untapped liquidity ripe for the taking below.” Fellow analyst CW tried to bring some positivity to the table, arguing that bitcoin whales have stepped up by attempting to absorb the selling volume through buy orders at current price levels. After they removed their sell orders at higher prices, they are “absorbing selling volume from retail investors,” CW added . CryptoPotato listed five reasons earlier today behind BTC’s crash, which at the time was stopped at $75,000. Some of them include selling from major investors, but perhaps the most valid one is the growing uncertainty and tension between the US and Iran. The most recent reports on the war front indicate that the ceasefire might be coming to an end soon, which has historically led to immediate price declines from risk-on assets like BTC. What BTC Needs to Do Another popular analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, outlined bitcoin’s potential path to recovery if it’s to rebound soon. The key level that has to be reclaimed remains the low $80,000 region with the “horizontal and Daily 200MA/EMA sitting right around” it. He explained that the bulls need to “turn this into a higher low and proceed to break that resistance.” However, he warned that a failure to do so soon will become just another “lower high in what has been a bigger down trend ever since the October 2025 all-time high.” $BTC It is still pretty straight forward from here looking at the chart. Bitcoin needs to clear that low $80Ks region with the horizontal and Daily 200MA/EMA sitting right around the same region. This is the first “bigger sell off” this leg up after the April move higher.… pic.twitter.com/01yL1CqatF — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) May 22, 2026 The post Bitcoin Slumps Again to $74K as Bearish Market Structure Intensifies appeared first on CryptoPotato .

Crypto Potato 2026-05-23 11:13
Spot BTC ETFs see $1.26 billion exit in five days
🚨 Over $1.26 billion exited spot BTC ETFs in just five days. Bitcoin’s price was last seen trading at $75,410 with choppy movement. 🧭 Critical data: $60 billion has flowed into $BTC ETFs year-to-date. Continue Reading: Spot BTC ETFs see $1.26 billion exit in five days The post Spot BTC ETFs see $1.26 billion exit in five days appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

CoinTurk News 2026-05-23 11:01
Bitcoin And Ethereum Sharpe Ratio Diverge — What This Means
A crypto founder and pundit recently took to the social media platform X to highlight a notable divergence between the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets. According to the analyst, the world’s leading cryptocurrencies could be nearing levels that would soon reverse their current price trajectories. Bitcoin In High-Pressure Environment As Ethereum Market Leans Neutral In a May 22nd post on the X platform, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed that the Bitcoin market is currently in a state where its return efficiency is weakening relative to short-term risks. This observation is based on the negative readings on Bitcoin’s annualized Sharpe Ratio. For context, the Sharpe ratio measures how much extra return an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) generates relative to the additional risk it entails. Higher readings typically suggest stronger risk-adjusted performance, while a negative reading indicates that investors are transacting without worthwhile rewards on the table. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates Near Lows As Market Searches For Direction Wedson noted that, while Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is within negative bounds, Ethereum’s stands quite close to the zero mark — a sign that the market is on almost neutral grounds sentiment-wise. In this scenario, Ethereum is neither offering strong risk-adjusted returns nor signaling extreme deterioration. Current Conditions Similar To Historical Price Bottom Precedents: Analyst While present conditions within the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are essentially short-term, Wedson highlighted what their simultaneous prolongation would signal. According to the market pundit, extended stretches below zero have frequently coincided with several of Bitcoin’s weakest periods in terms of return-versus-risk. However, these phases have historically emerged near price bottoms. This is often where bearish sentiment, panic selling, and investor exhaustion become widespread, setting the path for new bullish pressure to eventually overcome the bears. Nonetheless, the Alphractal founder mentioned as a caveat that the current conditions do not confirm that a bottom will be established. Instead, it merely highlights that the cryptocurrency market might soon enter zones typically associated with elevated pessimism, low reward potential, and risk stress. It is this type of highly pessimistic environment that often develops before major trend reversals play out. Until clear confirmations have thus been identified, investors and other market participants are advised to act with caution. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $75,642, down by 2.5% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the price of ETH stands at around $2,060, reflecting an over 3.2% in the past day. Related Reading: Solana Vs Ethereum: What’s Holding Growth Back? 3 Reasons SOL Is Still Lagging Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

NewsBTC 2026-05-23 10:00
5 Reasons Bitcoin Dumped to $75K – And Why More Pain May Follow
Bitcoin traded above $82,000 during the previous business week, but it was violently rejected and dropped by over seven grand in the following days to a monthly low of $75,000 marked during the night. Here are some of the possible reasons behind this correction. Trump Media, Cuban Sell Off CryptoPotato reported yesterday that one of the wallets linked to the Trump-family-operated Trump Media Group had sent over $200 million worth of the cryptocurrency to exchanges, with the likely intention to sell. They did something similar four months ago and are deep in the red on their BTC position, which was accumulated at prices near the all-time high. More sell-off uncertainty came after billionaire investor Mark Cuban said he had disposed of most of his BTC stash after he lost confidence in its role as a hedge against weakening fiat currencies and geopolitical instability. He believes bitcoin’s behavior during the recent war in Iran questioned one of the core reasons he owned the asset. Separately, Ali Martinez noted that other BTC investors have been sending units en masse to exchanges. Data he obtained from Santiment reads that roughly $745 million worth of bitcoin was transferred to trading platforms in just five days. Similar developments typically increase the immediate selling pressure since most investors transfer funds to exchanges only to sell. 9,664 Bitcoin $BTC , worth over $744 million, have been sent to exchanges over the last five days. pic.twitter.com/FxmMTC3QJi — Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 22, 2026 Warsh and War Yesterday’s bitcoin decline came just a few hours after Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Analysts who weighed in on his upcoming four-year role, though, noted that the actual concern for bitcoin and crypto would come from his policy on the Fed’s balance sheet. He previously said the balance sheet is too large and hinted at quantitative tightening, which has historically harmed risk-on assets like crypto. Lastly, reports emerged late last night that the US President has doubled down on his plans for a “fresh round” of military strikes against Iran as both sides have failed to reach a permanent deal. Moreover, CBS said the President and some members of the US military and intelligence community had canceled plans for the Memorial Day weekend in anticipation of possible attacks. The war has previously impacted BTC’s price, and the threat of it resuming is unlikely to cause any positive changes. As such, all the aforementioned reasons could result in even more price troubles for bitcoin, especially if the ceasefire ends and the attacks resume. The post 5 Reasons Bitcoin Dumped to $75K – And Why More Pain May Follow appeared first on CryptoPotato .

Crypto Potato 2026-05-23 08:34
VanEck Mid-May 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck
Summary Bitcoin recovered +11.8% m/m to ~$78,272, but options open interest stayed flat and put premiums collapsed -51%, indicating the rally is spot-driven, not levered. The 30-day MA hashrate sits -13.2% below its November 11, 2025, peak at 964 EH/s, with 187 days elapsed, the longest and deepest sustained decline in bitcoin’s industrial mining era. The 11 largest US public miners shed ~7 EH/s in Q1 2026 as power capacity moves to AI hyperscalers under 10-to-15-year leases. Government-owned stranded hydro and gas assets become the natural successor. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) recovered +11.8% m/m on a spot-led rally even as hashrate set its longest sustained drawdown. US public miners are pivoting to AI; sovereign miners are the natural successors. Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin. Funding Rates Hold Tepidly Positive Bitcoin price action over the past 30 days stabilized after a deep prior-month drawdown, with the 30-day moving-average ((MA)) price recovering to ~$78,272 (+11.8% m/m) and the spot close on May 14 at $81,394. Despite the price recovery, perpetual-futures sentiment remains outright cautious. The 30-day moving average of the annualized basis has slipped to -0.45%, down from 1.27% a month ago and well below the 3.16% reading from a year ago. The current 30-day MA sits in the 15th percentile of all observations since November 2020. The 7-day moving average sits higher at 3.13%, a rebound from April's negative territory but still well short of levels typically associated with bullish positioning. Options Positioning: Hedging Unwinds as Vol Collapses to Historic Lows Bitcoin Put Premiums Collapsed -51% Month-Over-Month as Hedging Demand Unwound Source: VanEck Research, Glassnode as of 5/18/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. The options complex rotated sharply over the last 30 days as hedging demand collapsed amid the price recovery. Put premiums paid dropped -51% m/m to $281.8M, while call buying fell a far more modest -8%. The Call/Put premium ratio swung from 0.82 last month to 1.54, signaling a decisive rotation out of downside protection and into upside positioning. Despite the move, the Call/Put ratio is arguably neutral and sits at only the 46th all-time percentile. Options open interest has remained flat as BTC recovered, confirming the rally is spot-driven rather than leveraged-options-driven. Total options OI grew +0.8% m/m to $33.0B and sits at the 18th percentile of the trailing year versus a 1-year average of $40.3B. Implied volatility (IV) is historically cheap across the 1-month options curve. The 1-month Call IV of 37% was down -8.2 percentage points m/m and now sits at the 3rd all-time percentile. Meanwhile, 1-month Put IV at 44% is -12.2 percentage points m/m and sits at the 12th percentile. IV Skew, or the Put/Call IV differential, remains defensive despite the IV collapse. The 1-month put/call skew fell to +6.9 percentage points from +10.9 percentage points a month earlier, sitting at the 72nd all-time percentile. This suggests that BTC puts are still richer than calls on a relative basis. Traders are not paying up for downside protection using puts, but the fear bid is structurally present. 1-Month Options Snapshot: Volatility Sits at Multi-Year Lows Metric Last 30 Day Prior 30 Day All-Time Percentile 1m Call IV 37% ~52% 3rd 1m Put IV 44% ~60% 12th 1m Put/Call Skew +6.9pp ~+9pp 72nd Call/Put Premium Ratio 1.54 0.82 46th Put Premiums Paid (30d sum) $281.8M ~$575M -- Total Options OI $33.0B ~$32.7B 18th (1-yr) Source: VanEck Research, Glassnode as of 5/14/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. Onchain Activity and Network Usage Network throughput has accelerated over the past 30 days. Daily transactions averaged ~590k, up +9.2% m/m and +46.4% y/y, sitting at the 99th percentile of all-time history and the 99.7th percentile of the trailing year, running about +33% above the trailing 12-month average. Daily active addresses (644.6k) and new addresses (287.5k) ticked up +4.7% and +2.5% m/m, respectively, but remain well below year-ago levels (-13.2% and -7.5% y/y) and in the 20th and 12th percentiles, indicating throughput is being driven by repeat users rather than new entrants. Daily inscriptions (49.8k) faded another -5.7% m/m and are -47.6% y/y, continuing the trend of ordinal-driven activity declining on the network. Transfer volume in BTC terms ran at 782k/day (+13.7% m/m); in USD terms, ~$61.1B/day (+26.5% m/m, -0.8% y/y), with the price recovery doing most of the dollar-denominated work. The share of active supply in the last 180 days slipped -160 bps m/m to 28.4% (56th percentile), echoing April’s holder dynamics. Holders appear to be growing more dormant even as price recovers. The percentage of supply in profit climbed to 78.9% (+5.7% m/m, 24th percentile), and the unrealized P/L ratio rose to 0.307 (+37.0% m/m, -41.9% y/y, 23rd percentile). Miner revenue averaged ~$35.4M/day (+12.6% m/m, -17.5% y/y), and miner-to-exchange flows in USD ran at ~$10.5M/day (+9.5% m/m, -18% y/y). BTC dominance closed the period at 59.9% (+254 bps m/m, 67th percentile), a partial reversal of the altcoin rotation earlier in the quarter. Long-Term Holder Behavior The cohort picture has shifted decisively toward the long end and the youngest long-term cohorts. The April note flagged elevated transfer activity among 5y-7y, 7y-10y, and 10y+ holders, while younger long-term cohorts pared back. Over the last 30 days, the long-end story has intensified and broadened: the 10y+ cohort moved 51.3k BTC (+30% m/m), placing it in the 89th percentile of all rolling 30-day windows over the past year and the 92nd over the past two years. The 1y-2y and 2y-3y cohorts sit at the 84th-87th percentiles on both bases, with 2y-3y up +132% m/m. The 7y-10y cohort prints a 58th percentile over the past year. The genuine quiet spots are the 3y-5y and 5y-7r cohorts, which made transfer activity in the 20th and 24th percentiles over the past year. Despite the elevated transfer activity amongst longer-term holders, the 5y-7y, 7y-10y, and 10y+ age groups’ total token balances sit at the 48th, 93rd and 99th percentiles over the past 4 years. Likewise, not all spent volume represents selling: some flows reflect migrations to quantum-resistant addresses, digital asset treasury ((DAT)) contributions, or routine wallet maintenance. However, the younger cohorts of long-term holders have seen substantial churn. The 1y-2y, 2y-3y, and 3y-5y maturity brackets holdings sit at the 42nd, 10th, and 2nd percentiles over the past 4 years! Realized P/L confirms the easing of distribution pressure. The 30-day average net realized P/L flipped from -$139M/day in the prior 30-day window to +$26M/day in the most recent window, indicating that, on net, coins moving onchain are no longer locking in losses. From April 15 to May 15, 19 out of the 30 days saw hodlers realize positive profit on their Bitcoin transfers. Long-Term Holder Spent Percentiles (Last 30 Days, Share of Supply Spent): Oldest LTH Cohorts Reactivate, Oldest Quiet Down Source: VanEck Research, Glassnode as of 5/19/2026. 'Last 30d share' = sum of supply spent by cohort over trailing 30 days as a fraction of cohort supply. Not all spent volume represents selling. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Mining Dynamics: Hash-Rate Drawdown Signal Still Active Bitcoin Hashrate Suffers Longest Sustained Drawdown in Industrial Mining Era Source: VanEck Research, Glassnode as of 5/18/2026. The hash-rate drawdown that began in mid-November is no longer a blip; now represents the longest and deepest sustained decline in Bitcoin's industrial mining era. The 30-day MA hashrate sits at 964 EH/s, -13.2% below the 1,110 EH/s peak set November 11, 2025, a drawdown that's already run 187 days with a peak intra-episode trough of -14.5%. Momentum readings reinforce the picture: the 30-day change in the hash-rate MA sits in the 19th percentile of all rolling 30-day moves, and the 90-day change in the 16th percentile. In Bitcoin's history, contractions of this magnitude are uncommon. Mining difficulty tells the same story, since it tracks hashrate. Currently, its 30-day change sits in the 10th percentile, the 90-day change in the 8th, and difficulty itself is -12.7% below its November 27, 2025 high. US Public Bitcoin Miner Hashrate: Q4 2025 vs Q1 2026 Company Ticker Q4 2025 (EH/s) Q1 2026 (EH/s) Change (EH/s) y/y % Status Riot Platforms RIOT 34.0 42.3 +8.3 +24% Partial AI Pivot Bitdeer BTDR 43.2 50.2 +7.0 +16% Partial AI Pivot MARA Holdings MARA 51.9 55.5 +3.6 +7% Partial AI Pivot Hut 8 HUT 1.8 1.8 - - AI pivot — winding down American Bitcoin ABTC 20.2 20.2 - - Mining — growing fast Core Scientific CORZ 10.9 9.7 -1.2 -11% AI pivot — exiting mining CleanSpark CLSK 47.0 44.5 -2.5 -5% Partial AI Pivot TeraWulf WULF 6.8 4.0 -2.8 -41% AI pivot — winding down Cipher Digital CIFR 15.6 11.1 -4.5 -29% AI pivot — winding down IREN IREN 43.0 35.8 -7.2 -17% AI pivot — winding down Keel KEEL 19.5 12.0 -7.5 -38% AI pivot — winding down Total (11 miners) 293.9 287.1 -6.8 -2% Source: VanEck Research, 8-K / 10-K quarterly production disclosures, Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 earnings releases as of 5/18/2026. The US public miner cohort is undergoing a structural reorientation that is reshaping the composition of global Bitcoin hashrate. The logic driving the pivot is financially compelling. AI and high-performance computing (HPC) data center infrastructure commands valuations per megawatt that are multiples of what Bitcoin mining has historically attracted, and that gap has widened sharply. The gross valuation afforded per MW of AI capacity has grown roughly 3x since the summer of 2025, creating a powerful incentive for any miner sitting on contracted power to reconsider how that megawatt is best monetized. The trend became impossible to ignore in Q1 2026. Across the 11 largest publicly traded US Bitcoin miners, aggregate installed hashrate declined by roughly 7 EH/s between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, as companies began physically decommissioning mining fleets and repurposing substations, cooling systems, and data hall layouts for GPU workloads. This is not a temporary curtailment but a full pivot away from Bitcoin mining that permanently removes these power sites from the Bitcoin network. The exits are coming in waves and on different timelines. CORZ will be a near-pure-play AI infrastructure company by early 2027, having already reduced its mining footprint to one or two sites by year-end 2026. CIFR is running its last remaining Odessa mine to exploit a favorable fixed-price power purchase agreement ((PPA)), with CEO Tyler Page citing the end of July 2027 as an outside date for full exit. WULF has told investors it will be out of Bitcoin mining by the next halving, roughly April 2028. IREN and KEEL have both committed to multi-year exits without specifying hard dates, though KEEL is arguably the furthest along, having already sold its Latin American Bitcoin operations, rebranded, redomiciled to the US, and halted all new mining capital expenditure. What makes this wave distinct from prior cycles of miner capitulation is the permanence. Miners are not switching off rigs because Bitcoin economics are temporarily unattractive. They are signing 10-to-15-year leases with investment-grade hyperscalers, locking in contracted revenue streams that dwarf anything the mining business could offer, and structurally committing the underlying power capacity to AI for a generation. US Public Bitcoin Miners Shed ~7 EH/s in Q1 2026 as AI Pivot Accelerates Equity Value Creation ($mm/MW) Source: VanEck Research, Corporate disclosures, as of 5/18/2026. We believe that the most logical successor to the departing corporate fleet is the sovereign miner. Nation-states face no quarterly earnings pressure, no institutional shareholder base demanding an AI multiple, and no cost of capital in the conventional sense. Government-owned stranded hydro or gas assets should continue to prove appealing as Bitcoin mining sites. Russia is a significant example, running an estimated 13-17% of global hashrate anchored by Siberian hydro and natural gas, though rising domestic energy costs have stalled its hashrate growth since 2025. BitRiver operates with implicit state backing, and Moscow formalized mining as a legally taxable activity in 2024, but grid power has climbed above $0.06/kWh in many regions, squeezing margins and pushing some operators to relocate abroad. The Gulf states represent the most consequential emerging vector, with Saudi Arabia sitting on roughly 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of flared Aramco gas and the UAE already hosting licensed sovereign-backed programs through Abu Dhabi Global Market ((ADGM)). Bhutan accumulated over 13,000 BTC against Himalayan hydro surplus through its sovereign wealth fund Druk Holding, representing the purest early proof of concept for state-directed mining. Holdings have since dropped to roughly 3,121 BTC, a -76% reduction in 18 months, with onchain data showing no significant new mining inflows for over a year, though officials deny any sales. Ethiopia's sovereign wealth fund signed a $250 million memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Hong Kong-based West Data Group in February 2024 to mine against GERD hydro overflow, with foreign currency generation the explicit motivation. These are countries with stranded energy surplus that would be best monetized by Bitcoin mining. "This motivation should prove durable across Bitcoin price cycles in a way corporate mining economics are not. As US public miners decommission fleets to build AI data centers, older-generation ASICs will flow into distressed secondary markets where sovereign and state-affiliated buyers with cheap power and long time horizons are the natural acquirers. We believe that the hardware will find the energy." Frequently Asked Questions Why is bitcoin’s hashrate falling in 2026? The 30-day moving average hashrate has been in drawdown for 187 days, marking the longest and deepest sustained decline since bitcoin reached industrial scale. The proximate cause is the AI pivot among US public miners, which shed roughly 7 EH/s of bitcoin hashrate in Q1 2026 as they redirected power capacity to high-performance computing tenants under 10-to-15-year leases. Difficulty has reset -12.7% over the same period, partially offsetting the network impact. Which sovereign nations are mining bitcoin? Russia operates an estimated 13-17% of global hashrate, anchored by Siberian hydro and natural gas. Bhutan, through its sovereign wealth fund Druk Holding, accumulated over 13,000 BTC against Himalayan hydro surplus, though holdings have since drawn down to roughly 3,954 BTC. The Gulf states are the most consequential emerging vector, with Saudi Arabia sitting on ~1.5 billion cubic feet per day of flared Aramco gas and the UAE hosting licensed sovereign-backed programs through ADGM. Ethiopia’s sovereign wealth fund signed a $250 million MOU in February 2024 to mine against GERD hydro overflow. What does declining hashrate mean for bitcoin’s price? Historically, sustained hashrate drawdowns have shown no consistent directional relationship with spot prices. The current setup is structurally distinct: capacity is not being switched off in response to weak economics but redirected to AI tenants under long-term contracts, which removes that capacity from bitcoin mining for a decade or longer. In the near term, the spot recovery to ~$78,272 (+11.8% m/m) has occurred alongside the hashrate drawdown, suggesting price is being driven by demand-side factors independent of mining capacity. Important Disclosures Definitions Bitcoin ((BTC)): A decentralized digital currency operating on a peer-to-peer network, secured by proof-of-work mining and a fixed supply schedule capped at 21 million units. Hashrate: The total computational power, measured in hashes per second, expended by the global bitcoin mining network to validate transactions and secure the blockchain. Typically expressed in exahashes per second (EH/s). Long-Term Holder ((LTH)): Onchain classification for bitcoin held in wallets for 155 days or longer without movement. Considered a proxy for conviction-driven supply. Mining Difficulty: A dynamic parameter that adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain a 10-minute average block time as aggregate hashrate changes. Put-Call Ratio: Ratio of put option open interest to call option open interest. Higher values indicate elevated hedging or bearish positioning. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Risk Considerations This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. Investments in digital assets and Web3 companies are highly speculative and involve a high degree of risk. These risks include, but are not limited to: the technology is new and many of its uses may be untested; intense competition; slow adoption rates and the potential for product obsolescence; volatility and limited liquidity, including but not limited to, inability to liquidate a position; loss or destruction of key(s) to access accounts or the blockchain; reliance on digital wallets; reliance on unregulated markets and exchanges; reliance on the internet; cybersecurity risks; and the lack of regulation and the potential for new laws and regulation that may be difficult to predict. Moreover, the extent to which Web3 companies or digital assets utilize blockchain technology may vary, and it is possible that even widespread adoption of blockchain technology may not result in a material increase in the value of such companies or digital assets. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, and Web3 companies, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment. Digital assets are not covered by FDIC or SIPC insurance. Digital assets are digital representations of value that function as mediums of exchange, units of account, or stores of value, but they do not have legal tender status. Digital assets are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are generally not backed or supported by any government or central bank. Web3 companies include but are not limited to, companies that involve the development, innovation, and/or utilization of blockchain, digital assets, or crypto technologies. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. © Van Eck Associates Corporation. Original Post

Seeking Alpha 2026-05-23 08:30
Overleveraged Bitcoin bulls get crushed in $576M wipeout
Crypto bulls saw more than half a billion dollars wiped out in liquidations after the crypto market printed red indexes all around. The cumulative digital assets market cap dipped by more than 2% over the last 24 hours to hover around $2.53 trillion. Bitcoin saw $55 billion leave its market cap amid the fresh sell-off. BTC price dropped by 3% while Ether slid by 4%. This comes in when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its planned exemption framework linked to tokenized crypto stock trading. However, Kevin Warsh also got sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. BTC pullback wipes out bulls According to CoinGlass data, more than 124,000 traders were liquidated over the past 24 hours. The total liquidations went on to hit $574.28 million. The single largest liquidation reportedly occurred on Bitget through the BTCUSDT perpetual pair. That one order was valued at around $32.4 million. Around 90% of those liquidated positions (approx $524 million) were bullish longs. This suggests that traders were expecting the crypto market to keep recovering, but it went the other way. Crypto liquidation on exchanges over the last 24 hours; Source: Coinglass Bitcoin price fell straight to the $75,000 level, triggering the liquidation of $214 million alone. Data shows that $209 million worth of liquidated bets (97%) turned out to be long positions. BTC has been dealing with mixed sentiments lately. Its price has dropped by 3% in the last 30 days, but it has still remained up by almost 7% over the past 60 days. The broader crypto market also weakened alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all declined more sharply as traders reduced risk exposure ahead of the weekend. The move comes during an increasingly fragile macro backdrop. Cryptopolitan reported that Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. He was appointed by US President Donald Trump. However, Jerome Powell will reportedly remain at the Fed as a governor. During the swearing-in ceremony, Warsh said he would lead a “reform-oriented Federal Reserve” while learning from both past successes and failures. BTC traders face $2B liquidation risk Markets are also reacting to escalating tensions involving Iran. Reports suggest Trump is preparing for potential new military strikes against Iran. This comes after he canceled Memorial Day weekend plans. Multiple US military and intelligence officials reportedly also canceled travel plans and were placed on standby. This has fueled concerns that another geopolitical escalation could hit global markets. Bitcoin continues hovering inside a highly leveraged trading zone. Analysts suggest that it could trigger even larger forced liquidations. CoinGlass liquidation heat maps show that if Bitcoin falls below roughly $73,786, then it can trigger more than $1.29 billion in leveraged long positions of liquidation. It added that a breakout above roughly $80,995 would activate around $1.22 billion in bearish short positions. Derivatives analysts describe this setup as a liquidation “minefield”. This is where relatively small price moves can rapidly trigger cascading liquidations on either side of the market. It is being warned that Bitcoin breaking below $70,346 would place more than $2 billion in bullish positions at risk. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .

Cryptopolitan 2026-05-23 08:18
Bitcoin Just Triggered A Rare Exchange Flow Setup – Here’s What History Suggests
Bitcoin is facing a critical test above $75,000 as selling pressure builds and the market searches for the structural support that would prevent the correction from extending further. The price is at a level that demands a response — and CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV has identified a signal in the Bitcoin flow data that places the current moment in a historical context that spans nearly a decade of market cycles. The Bitcoin Fund Flow Ratio on Binance has returned to the 0.010 to 0.012 zone for the sixth time since 2018. That specific range — and the fact that the market has now visited it six times across eight years of dramatically different market conditions — is what gives the current reading its analytical weight. This is not a metric touching an arbitrary level. It is a metric returning to a zone that has preceded structural turning points in Bitcoin’s price on five previous occasions. The mechanics behind the ratio explain why those turning points occur. The Fund Flow Ratio measures BTC flowing through exchanges relative to total BTC transferred across the entire Bitcoin network. When the ratio is elevated, exchanges are driving a disproportionate share of network activity — the signature of active speculation, repositioning, and profit-taking. When it falls to the 0.010 to 0.012 zone, exchange activity has contracted to a small fraction of total network transfers, reflecting reduced speculative participation and a market that has retreated from aggressive trading behavior. Five previous visits to this zone preceded what came next. MorenoDV’s analysis examines whether the sixth is following the same pattern. The Sixth Visit to This Zone Since 2018 MorenoDV’s historical mapping of the Fund Flow Ratio gives the current reading its most precise analytical context. The 0.010 to 0.012 zone has appeared at meaningful junctures across Bitcoin’s entire modern market history — and the pattern that followed each visit is what makes the sixth occurrence worth examining carefully. The early 2019 instance arrived in the aftermath of the 2018 bear market, when Bitcoin was still trading near its cycle lows and exchange activity had compressed to reflect a market where most of the selling had already occurred. The ratio’s compression was not a sign of disinterest — it was the behavioral signature of a market where sellers had largely exhausted their pressure and the remaining participants were waiting rather than acting. What followed was the recovery that defined 2019’s price structure. The 2020 instance appeared during the base-building phase that preceded Bitcoin’s most significant bull market expansion. Fund flow activity on Binance remained compressed while price consolidated — and when demand returned and momentum accelerated, the ratio expanded sharply as investors flooded back to exchanges to position for and chase the developing trend. The compression preceded the expansion. The quiet preceded the move. The current setup presents the same structural question that each previous visit required the market to answer. Either the compression reflects genuine apathy — a market without the demand needed to initiate recovery — or it reflects sell-side exhaustion creating the foundation from which the next phase builds. MorenoDV’s analysis does not declare which interpretation is correct. It identifies the zone as the decision point where that question gets answered — and notes that five previous visits produced answers worth paying attention to. Bitcoin Consolidates Above Key Support Bitcoin continues consolidating near the $77,000 region after failing to sustain momentum above the critical $80,000 resistance zone earlier this month. The weekly chart shows a market trapped between recovery continuation and a broader macro correction, with price now hovering directly above an important structural support region between roughly $69,000 and $72,000 — the same area highlighted repeatedly throughout the recent consolidation phase. Technically, BTC remains below the 50-week moving average near the $82,000 region, which continues acting as dynamic resistance after rejecting the latest recovery attempt. At the same time, the price still trades above the 100-week and 200-week moving averages, meaning the longer-term macro structure has weakened but has not fully broken down. The most important feature on the chart is the developing compression between lower highs and defended support. Buyers have repeatedly stepped in around the highlighted support zones, preventing a deeper retrace toward the low-$60,000 range. However, each rebound has also produced weaker upside continuation, showing that bullish momentum remains fragile while macro uncertainty persists. Volume has gradually declined during the recovery attempt, suggesting the recent rebound lacked aggressive conviction. This aligns with the broader Fund Flow Ratio analysis showing compressed exchange activity and reduced speculative participation. For bulls, reclaiming the $82,000 level and the 50-week moving average would be the first signal that the correction phase is losing control. Until then, Bitcoin remains in a sensitive consolidation structure where both continuation and breakdown remain viable outcomes. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoinist 2026-05-23 07:00
Glassnode Says Bitcoin Options Traders Are Still Positioned For Trouble
Bitcoin’s drop back below $78,000 after a rejection near recent local range highs has left options traders positioned cautiously, according to new data shared by Glassnode. The firm said the options market continues to show compressed volatility expectations, elevated downside hedging demand, and a gamma structure that could amplify weakness if BTC moves toward the mid-$75,000 area. The move follows a failed attempt to hold near the upper end of the recent local range. While spot price action has softened, Glassnode’s thread focused on what derivatives positioning suggests beneath the surface: traders are still paying up for protection rather than aggressively chasing upside. “BTC broke back below $78K after being rejected near the recent local range highs,” Glassnode wrote. “Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.” Bitcoin Options Traders Stay Defensive One of the clearest signals came from implied volatility. Glassnode said BTC implied volatility resumed its decline after a short-lived rebound earlier in the week. One-week implied volatility now sits near 31%, down from 39% earlier this week, while longer-dated implied volatility also moved slightly lower. The implication is that the market is not yet pricing a disorderly breakout in either direction, even as downside hedging remains elevated. “The market is pricing a quieter near term environment again,” Glassnode said. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red That calm, however, is not the same as bullish positioning. Glassnode said 25-delta skew remains “firmly in put territory” after the rejection near $82,000. One-week skew briefly touched 24% before easing, a sign that puts continued to trade at a strong premium to calls. “Traders continue to favor downside protection,” the firm wrote. The same caution appeared in Glassnode’s skew index ratio, which compares upside and downside implied volatility. Most tenors remain below 1, meaning puts are richer than calls. The exception is the six-month tenor, where the ratio still shows a call premium, suggesting that longer-dated upside demand has not disappeared entirely. Nearer-term positioning is more defensive. Glassnode said upside demand remains limited outside longer-dated structures, while the broader options surface continues to show investors seeking protection against further downside. Realized and implied volatility are also diverging. One-month realized volatility has fallen toward 27%, while one-month implied volatility remains closer to 35%. That leaves the volatility risk premium near recent highs, according to Glassnode. “Options still price more movement than BTC has recently delivered,” the firm said. The gamma profile adds another layer of risk. Glassnode identified a large short gamma cluster near $75,000, with roughly $3.2 billion of negative exposure below spot. In options markets, short gamma positioning can force dealers to hedge in ways that reinforce spot moves, potentially increasing volatility if price approaches key levels. Related Reading: Wintermute Says Bitcoin Rally Was A Squeeze, Low $70,000s Loom At the same time, positive gamma clusters near $78,000 and $80,000 may act as resistance. That setup leaves Bitcoin boxed between nearby upside friction and a lower zone where downside movement could accelerate. “This structure can accelerate downside volatility near 75K,” Glassnode wrote. Flows over the past week also leaned defensive. Put buying slightly led the tape, representing 25% of premium, while calls bought also accounted for 25%. Call selling remained elevated at 25.7% of flow, reinforcing the picture of muted upside appetite. Glassnode’s conclusion was direct: front-end implied volatility keeps compressing, the volatility spread is widening, skew remains in put territory, only the six-month skew index ratio shows a call premium, flows lean defensive, and a short gamma acceleration zone sits below spot. For traders, the takeaway is less about outright panic than asymmetry. Bitcoin options are not pricing a major volatility expansion in the immediate term, but the market is still paying for downside protection and showing limited confidence in near-term upside. Unless spot can reclaim the nearby resistance zones around $78,000 and $80,000, the options market appears positioned for continued caution. At press time, BTC traded at $76,744. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

NewsBTC 2026-05-23 07:00
Trump Media’s $205M Bitcoin Transfer Fuels Fresh Sale Speculation
Trump Media-linked wallets deposited 2,650 Bitcoin, worth roughly $205 million, into Crypto.com, according to on-chain trackers, triggering speculation that the Truth Social parent has sold another tranche of its Bitcoin treasury. The transfer matters because Trump Media’s Bitcoin position was built near much higher levels, leaving the company exposed to one of the more visible corporate treasury drawdowns in the market. Lookonchain framed the move as an open question, writing : “Trump Media just sold 2,650 BTC ($205M)?” The account said Trump Media had bought 11,542 BTC for about $1.37 billion at an average cost of $118,522, previously transferred out 2,000 BTC at about $87,378, and then deposited another 2,650 BTC into Crypto.com. On-chain data places the latest deposit between roughly 01:22 and 02:22 GMT on May 22, with Bitcoin trading near $77,300 at the time. Did Trump Media Really Sell The Bitcoin? The key caveat is that an exchange deposit is not the same as a confirmed sale. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pushed back on the more aggressive interpretation, writing: “Trump Media-linked wallet deposited 2,650 BTC to Crypto_com, sale is unconfirmed.” That distinction is important because the company’s prior 2,000 BTC movement was later described not as a spot sale, but as collateral tied to hedge arrangements. Trump Media’s own filings previously showed that the company entered collar hedges on 4,000 BTC and posted 2,000 BTC as collateral to a counterparty with rehypothecation rights, requiring derecognition of those assets from the balance sheet. Arkham estimates that visible on-chain holdings after the latest Crypto.com deposit had fallen to 6.889K BTC valued at $533 million. The optics are still difficult. Trump Media announced its BTC treasury strategy in May 2025 through a private placement involving about $1.5 billion in common stock and $1 billion in 0.00% convertible senior secured notes, saying proceeds would be used to create a Bitcoin treasury. Crypto.com and Anchorage Digital were named as custody providers for the strategy. That treasury has since become a major driver of reported results. In its first-quarter 2026 update, Trump Media reported $2.2 billion in total assets and about $2.1 billion in financial assets, but also a $405.9 million net loss, with the bulk tied to non-cash losses including unrealized losses on digital assets, pledged digital assets and equity securities. The transfer drew sharp reaction from Bitcoin-native commentators. On-chain experz James “Checkmate” Check wrote : “Good, sell it all. Flush all the grift out. Bitcoin has a spectacular way of shedding its skin each cycle, and leaving all the scams, and crime behind. Sit tight.” The tone captured a broader split in market reaction: some viewed the deposit as capitulation, while others argued the prior collateral episode makes it risky to assume a sale before subsequent wallet activity or filings confirm it. For Trump Media shareholders, the next relevant question is whether the 2,650 BTC was liquidated, pledged, moved for custody reasons or left on the exchange. If sold near the reported deposit-time value, the tranche would crystallize a loss against the company’s stated average entry price. If not, the transaction may simply become another example of how corporate Bitcoin treasuries now face real-time scrutiny from public wallet labeling. At press time, BTC traded at $77,430.

Bitcoinist 2026-05-23 06:00

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