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Playing The Bitcoin Breakout With BITU
Summary Bitcoin's chart shows a constructive trend, with animal spirits returning, suggesting a potential rally above $100k per coin. Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks has increased since spot ETFs were approved. That said, it remains a strong anti-fiat asset as global M2 rises. Technical indicators are positive, with Bitcoin breaking key resistance levels and moving averages, signaling a potential upward price movement. ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF offers a leveraged exposure to Bitcoin's rally, but it's crucial to understand the risks of 2x leveraged ETFs. In my recent coverage of Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) I've held a more cautious view due to a variety of factors. Among other things, the capital flow story was deteriorating through March and the chart appeared to be going through a consolidation phase that allowed for more price discovery between the $75k and $87k per coin range. After two months, Bitcoin's chart looks far more constructive and animal spirits appear to be returning to the market. In this article, we'll look at Bitcoin's recent correlation with US equities, implications from the daily and weekly price charts, as well as why I think the ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF ( BITU ) can be a useful tool for leveraging a Bitcoin rally back over $100k per coin. Correlations Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks has been trending higher since spot ETFs were approved in the United States in January 2024: BITO, QQQ 30 Day Rolling Correlation (Portfolio Visualizer ) While there have been occasional dips in that correlation throughout the last 15 months, BTC has indeed had a closer relationship with the equity market than it has with the something like Gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) over the last three and half years: Correlations BITO QQQ SPY GLD ProShares Bitcoin ETF ( BITO ) 1 0.44 0.43 0.11 Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) 0.44 1 0.96 0.14 SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) 0.43 0.96 1 0.16 SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) 0.11 0.14 0.16 1 Source: Portfolio Visualizer, Asset correlations for time period 10/19/2021 - 04/24/2025 based on daily returns This is perhaps to the chagrin of Bitcoiners who view the asset as the digital equivalent of Gold - the latter of which has been on a rocket ship ride since breaking above $2,000 per ounce in early 2024. However, while investors/speculators can debate Bitcoin's past, present, and future as a 'safe-haven' asset, there is very little doubt in my own mind that Bitcoin continues to be a terrific anti-fiat trade. And history shows that as global M2 rises, the fiat-denominated price of BTC increases: BTC vs Global M2 (BGeometrics) Thus, as global M2 continues to rise, it stands to reason that BTC should follow. Consider the last time global M2 growth hit the 6% level - where it again currently stands now - BTC nearly doubled from $57k per coin in September 2024 to well over $100k in early 2025. To be clear, none of this means the same has to happen again, but given the level of debt throughout the global economy and the propensity for global governments to print when the going gets tough, BTC is not an asset that I think would be wise to short. Especially given what I see to be a clear technical breakout here in late-April. Technical Viewpoint When I look at Bitcoin technical indicators, I generally like to keep daily and weekly time-frames as the primary drivers of my decisions. Looking at the daily chart first, I see several positive signs: BTC Daily Chart (TrendSpider) Bitcoin held the 50-day MA for 4 straight sessions before moving convincingly higher on April 21st The coin has rallied through both the 100 and 200 day MAs in the sessions since It has taken out horizontal resistance at $90k It broke above trend-line resistance that dates back to January And the 'Crypto Fear and Greed' index has moved convincingly out of fear and into greed Shifting to the weekly chart, I've typically looked to the 8 and 20-week moving averages as my favorite indicators for increasing or decreasing exposure in the asset and its proxies. BTC Weekly Chart (TrendSpider) As of article submission, the weekly chart setup looks terrific. After battling with the 8-week MA for 4 consecutive weeks, we have a clear breakout above the 8 week and 20 week with our current candle. Something to keep in mind is the 8 week is still below the 20. But it does appear as though the 8-week MA will generate a week-on-week increase for the first time since February. Given everything I just laid out, I think it's reasonable to expect the price to head upward. Why BITU? I have covered BITU for Seeking Alpha in the past. For more of a fund-oriented view of the product, I'd encourage readers to get a proper sense for the risks associated with 2x leveraged ETFs. These are not products that are intended for long term holding, and they will decay over long periods of time due to daily re-balancing. Comparing BITU to a similar 2x fund as well as other Bitcoin-related ETFs, BITU is on the smaller side at under $1 billion in AUM: Fund Name Inception Expense Ratio AUM ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF 04/01/2024 0.95% $933.71M 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF ( BITX ) 06/27/2023 1.90% $2.39B iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) 01/05/2024 0.25% $54.48B ProShares Bitcoin ETF 10/18/2021 0.95% $2.40B Data by YCharts Data by YCharts

Seeking Alpha 2025-04-26 07:24
Massive $380 Million Inflow into Bitcoin Spot ETF Highlights ARKB, IBIT, and FBTC Gains
On April 26th, COINOTAG News reported significant activity in the Bitcoin investment landscape, highlighted by a robust net inflow of $380 million into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. The major contributors

CoinOtag 2025-04-26 07:03
How To Price Bitcoin? BlackRock Exec Explains
Bitcoin should be valued as “an uncorrelated asset that benefits when the world gets messier,” BlackRock’s US Head of Equity ETFs Jay Jacobs told CNBC in an interview on Thursday. “Crypto over the long run is decoupled from US tech stocks,” Jacobs said, stressing that short-term market stress can mask the difference but that “the long-term correlation between US stocks and Bitcoin is more like two or three percent.” He argued that what pushes equities higher—“higher growth, higher certainty, lower geopolitical risk”—is the mirror image of the forces that move Bitcoin. “Bitcoin thrives when you have more uncertainty and are looking for something that’s going to behave differently, so fundamentally they should behave like an uncorrelated asset.” BTC was changing hands just under $94,000 during Jacobs’ appearance, extending a rally that has added roughly 150% since spot-ETF approvals early last year. Bitcoin Rises Because Of ‘Mega-Forces” Jacobs tied price behaviour directly to flows. “We would think over the long term, if this trajectory of greater uncertainty around the world continues, things like gold and Bitcoin should continue to go up.” He noted that investors are repositioning accordingly: “We’ve seen significant inflows into gold ETFs; we’ve seen significant inflows into Bitcoin, and this is all because people are looking for those assets that will behave differently.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims Key Levels – New ATHs May Be Closer Than Expected The biggest beneficiary has been BlackRock’s own iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which on 23 April absorbed $643 million of net creations—its largest one-day haul since January—lifting the fund’s assets to roughly $54 billion. Jacobs framed the rush into hard assets as part of a longer geopolitical realignment. “If you look at central banks around the world, a continued movement towards diversification beyond just holding dollars is something that’s been happening for decades… the switch from just holding dollars to holding gold to looking at other types of assets like Bitcoin is a trend that’s been years in the making.” Central-bank gold purchases illustrate the shift: net buying topped 1,044 tonnes in 2024, the third consecutive year above the thousand-tonne mark, double the average of the previous decade. He linked those reserve moves to BlackRock’s 2023 “mega-forces” framework, which identified geopolitical fragmentation as a secular driver of returns. “That mega force is materialising in policies like reshoring in the United States and, I think, directly related to that fragmentation has been the rise of things like Bitcoin, as people see more destabilisation in geopolitics resulting in the need for more alternative assets.” Related Reading: Déjà Boom—Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s 2022 Rally Setup Is Back BlackRock’s influence is difficult to overstate: the firm ended the first quarter with a record $11.6 trillion under management. By pairing that scale with a public thesis that Bitcoin’s fair price rises as uncertainty deepens, the asset-manager is effectively codifying a valuation model in which scarcity and sanction-resistance—not discounted cash flows—set the marginal price. As Jacobs put it, the market is “looking for alternatives—parts of the portfolio that are going to behave separately from stocks and bonds.” With IBIT now swallowing more BTC each day than miners can produce post-halving, his remarks may offer the clearest blueprint yet for how the world’s largest asset manager thinks about pricing the world’s largest cryptocurrency. At press time, BTC traded at $94,510. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

NewsBTC 2025-04-26 07:00
Swiss National Bank Declines Bitcoin Reserves, Citing Liquidity and Volatility Concerns
In a recent statement reported by Coindesk on April 26th, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has declined to incorporate Bitcoin into its reserve holdings. This decision stems from persistent concerns

CoinOtag 2025-04-26 04:36
Whale Expands WBTC Holdings with $8.7 Million Leverage Borrowing, Totaling $38 Million
COINOTAG News reports that on April 26th, on-chain data analyst Yu Jin observed a significant movement in the crypto market. A notable **whale** has strategically utilized **leverage borrowing** to accumulate

CoinOtag 2025-04-26 04:13
Bitcoin Rally Lacks On-Chain Support – Analyst Warns Of Vanishing Network Activity
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $90,000 mark, fueling renewed optimism across the crypto market. With sentiment shifting and bullish calls returning, many investors are once again eyeing a move toward six figures. However, not everything is as it seems beneath the surface. Despite the impressive price surge, risks remain, particularly as global tensions between the United States and China escalate. The ongoing trade war and geopolitical friction are injecting volatility into markets, creating a fragile backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Forms ‘A Huge Inverse Head & Shoulders’ – $20K Target In Sight? Top analyst Maartunn shared a stark view of the current state of the Bitcoin network, revealing on-chain metrics that paint a different picture. According to his analysis, the latest move higher is primarily driven by leverage and derivatives rather than strong organic demand. He noted that the Bitcoin network is, in his words, “a ghost town,” with very little new activity or visible inflows from real users. This disconnect between price and on-chain fundamentals suggests that the current rally may lack sustainability. As such, investors should approach the next phase of Bitcoin’s price action with caution, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen or derivative positions begin to unwind. Bitcoin Faces Resistance: On-Chain Activity Lags Behind Bitcoin is now facing critical resistance as bulls attempt to reclaim the $95,000 level, a zone that could define short-term momentum. The recent breakout above the $88,600 resistance marked a key shift in market sentiment, with bulls taking control and pushing price action into a new range. However, to maintain this momentum, sustained demand will be essential. Analysts warn that a healthy retracement may occur before the next leg up, especially considering current market conditions. Volatility and uncertainty continue to dominate the landscape, with fear still lingering despite the recent rally. Much of this caution stems from ongoing global tensions and the unstable macro environment that has unfolded since US President Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024. With tariffs rising and trade negotiations with China growing increasingly tense, investors remain hesitant to commit fully to risk assets. Top analyst Maartunn shared a sobering on-chain analysis on X, highlighting a disconnect between Bitcoin’s price action and network activity. According to his findings, the recent surge is largely driven by ETF flows and rising open interest in the derivatives market—factors that often precede a reversal rather than a sustainable rally. Maartunn describes the current state of the Bitcoin network as a “ghost-town,” noting a lack of new visible on-chain demand. This divergence between price and network fundamentals raises questions about the sustainability of the current move. For Bitcoin to push convincingly past $95K and set up a run toward $100K, stronger spot demand and an uptick in real user activity will likely be necessary. Until then, traders should remain cautious and watch key support levels closely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims Key Levels – New ATHs May Be Closer Than Expected Price Action Details: $95K In Sight Bitcoin is trading at $93,600 after several days of bullish price action that saw it reclaim key resistance levels. The price has now entered a consolidation phase around the $93K level, as bulls prepare for a potential breakout toward $95K. A sustained move above that mark would open the door for a push toward the highly anticipated $100K milestone, signaling renewed strength across the crypto market. However, the path forward remains uncertain. While short-term sentiment appears optimistic, Bitcoin must hold above the $90K support level to maintain bullish structure. A failure to do so could trigger a drop back toward the 200-day moving average near $88K—a level that has served as a key pivot for market structure over the past months. Related Reading: HBAR Breaks Above Massive Falling Wedge – Expert Sets $0.38 Target This zone is being closely watched by both traders and long-term holders, as a breakdown below $90K would likely undermine the current recovery momentum. As consolidation continues, the next few sessions will be critical in determining whether BTC has enough strength to break higher or if a short-term correction is in store. For now, all eyes are on $95K as the next hurdle in Bitcoin’s push to reclaim market dominance. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

NewsBTC 2025-04-26 03:30
Ex-Goldman Sachs Executive Raoul Pal Favors One Surging Layer-1 Asset Over Solana (SOL) – Here’s Why
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal says one Solana ( SOL ) competitor is his “favored child.” Pal tells his 1.1 million followers on the social media platform X that if he had to “have a favorite,” the layer-1 chain Sui ( SUI ) would look preferable to Solana. The Real Vision chief executive shares a chart comparing the SUI/USD price to the SOL/USD price, with SUI/USD looking like it’s on the cusp of breaking out of resistance. Source: Rekt Capital/X SUI is trading at $2.97 at time of writing. The 13th-ranked crypto asset by market cap is up more than 21% in the past day and nearly 41% in the past week. SOL is trading at $149.47 at time of writing. The sixth-ranked crypto asset by market cap is up more than 3.5% in the past 24 hours and more than 13% in the past week. Pal isn’t the only analyst bullish on the Solana rival: Last week, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe told his 783,900 followers on the social media platform X that Sui is gaining adoption as a decentralized finance (DeFi) network, including for Bitcoin ( BTC ) staking and lending, referred to as Bitcoin DeFi (BTCfi). “Once the markets are turning back into an uptrend, the money will flow back into the ones that have shown strength. SUI is one of them. It’s a great spot to investigate SUI: BTCFi is quickly growing fast as 10% of TVL (Total Value Locked) going through SUI. DeFi on SUI is in the top six of all chains. Nearly $6 billion in trading volume on DeFi in the past month. I think it can do really well in the upcoming cycle.” Follow us on X , Facebook and Telegram Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox Check Price Action Surf The Daily Hodl Mix Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing. Generated Image: Midjourney The post Ex-Goldman Sachs Executive Raoul Pal Favors One Surging Layer-1 Asset Over Solana (SOL) – Here’s Why appeared first on The Daily Hodl .

The Daily Hodl 2025-04-26 03:00
DeFi Development Corp. Pursues $1 Billion in Securities to Expand Solana (SOL) Holdings and Validator Operations
DeFi Development Corp. aims to raise $1 billion by selling securities to purchase Solana (SOL) tokens over time. The firm has already raised $42 million for SOL acquisitions and plans

CoinOtag 2025-04-26 02:20
Bitcoin Price Surges Above $95,000 Amid Bullish Signals; Potential Rally Toward $100,000 in Play
Bitcoin rallies above $95,000 as bullish catalysts trigger heightened trading activity, sparking fresh interest among institutional investors. The resurgence in prices suggests a potential shift in marketplace dynamics, enhancing optimism

CoinOtag 2025-04-26 02:08
Bitcoin Payments Firm Strike Grew 600% in 2024
CEO and founder Jack Mallers revealed the numbers on Friday when he posted a copy of a private letter previously sent to the company’s investors. Strike’s Growth Exploded 600% Last Year Perhaps the reason Jack Mallers was picked to lead Twenty One Capital, the new bitcoin treasury firm backed by stablecoin giant Tether and Japanese

Bitcoin.com 2025-04-26 01:37
Bitwise Files for NEAR Protocol ETF Following Bitcoin and Ethereum Success
The burgeoning interest in alternative cryptocurrencies is exemplified by Bitwise’s recent move to file for a NEAR ETF, intended to capitalize on the expanding market for blockchain technology. Near Protocol,

CoinOtag 2025-04-26 01:10
Semler Scientific Buys Bitcoin Worth $10M, Yields Massive Profit
Semler Scientific, a healthcare tech company best known for its cardiovascular diagnostic tools, has again bet big on Bitcoin (BTC). Announced earlier today, the company has spent $10 million to buy 111 more Bitcoins. This smart move is already paying off as the company has incurred a notable profit. This is because the Bitcoin market shows signs of recovery, breaking a significant resistance level. Semler Scientific Bitcoin Bet on Yields Massive Returns The company’s latest investment is already showing great results. Since the start of the year, the new Bitcoin buy has earned a 23.5% return. This means Semler has made nearly $2.35 million in profit from holding Bitcoin. This move reflects Semsler’s strong belief in Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. Semler’s Bitcoin stash has grown even more prominent with this new addition. Now, Semler holds 3,303 Bitcoins, showing that it is serious about increasing its digital investments. Semsler Stays Committed To Bitcoin Amidst Market Turmoil This latest Bitcoin buy-up comes after Semler Scientific reported an unrealized loss of about $41.8 million on its Bitcoin holdings for the first quarter of 2025, as revealed in a preliminary filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This big loss comes as the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, faces a deeper downturn, leading to a sharp decline in the asset’s value. Notably, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff tensions play a major role in the market’s bearish trajectory, adding more pressure. Despite market setbacks, the company is still focused on Bitcoin. In a second SEC filing on the same day, Semler disclosed plans to raise up to $500 million by selling securities. The company revealed that a large part of the money will be used to buy more Bitcoin. Bitcoin Price Outlook Bitcoin, the leading crypto asset, has recently pushed above the $90,000 market level, sparking new interest in the crypto market. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has been trading at $95,475, up 2.24% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin’s recent rise made investors more hopeful, with confidence hitting its highest level in over two months on April 23. A popular index called Crypto Fear & Greed showed that many people were greedy and excited in the crypto market. However, by April 25, that excitement started to fade, even though Bitcoin stayed above $91,000. Some experts, like Michaël van de Poppe, think the Bitcoin price could go even higher if it stays above $90,000. Others remain cautious, pointing to weak stablecoin activity and ongoing economic uncertainty. The post Semler Scientific Buys Bitcoin Worth $10M, Yields Massive Profit appeared first on TheCoinrise.com .

The Coin Rise 2025-04-26 01:10

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