Summary The current picture on the daily is mostly bullish, with prices breaking above their daily MA 200 and its May consolidation range. A break-retest scenario would hint at a continuation as towards the next resistance zone between 3,000 to 3,050 as long as prices don't re-enter the May Range. Price action looks a bit more mixed looking in the 1H timeframe - prices might be forming what resembles like a head and shoulders which would be confirmed with a bigger correction in other crypto assets. By Elior Manier The cryptocurrency picture is confusing to understand in the past week, with most altcoins rallying but the path is not a one way up. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) is unchanged and most altcoins are down in today's session. ETH ( ETH-USD ), for example, broke above its 2,739 May highs, establishing local highs at 2,879 on Wednesday before retracting. Prices are down 2.80% on the session, but the descent looks more like a retracement than a full correction of the preceding up-moves. Ethereum's recently launched ETF's like ETHA ( ETHA ) or FETH ( FETH ) have had some steady inflows, not showing many signs of weakness there.Let's take a look at different timeframes, going from the Daily to the hourly to spot potential trends and hurdles. Table of Daily ETH ETF inflows, June 12 – Source: Glassnode Ethereum Technical Analysis ETH Daily Timeframe ETH Daily Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current picture on the daily is mostly bullish, with prices breaking above their Daily MA 200 and its May consolidation range.The RSI is still overbought; therefore that may slow down the prices again, any continuation of the up move would be dependent on market sentiment. ETH 4H Timeframe ETH 4H Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has consolidated above what was the preceding immediate resistance at 2,739 and is now considered the main pivot to future movements.The RSI went from overbought to slightly above neutral on the 4H timeframe accompanied by the 4H MA 20 - Candles are not showing any type of decision with a few three consecutive dojis. A break-retest scenario would hint at a continuation as towards the next resistance zone between 3,000 to 3,050 as long as prices don't re-enter the May Range.If they do, there is support at the 50 MA around 2,630 and after, the Main support zone 1 from 2,385 to 2,425. ETH 1H Timeframe ETH 1H Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Price action looks a bit more mixed looking in the 1H timeframe - prices might be forming what resembles like a head and shoulders which would be confirmed with a bigger correction in other crypto assets. The H&S materializing would be pointing towards the 4H MA 50 level at 2,638. In the meantime, prices are consolidating in the pivot zone mentioned higher and would need to break above the 1H MA 50 to keep pushing higher.The immediate resistance point is the last highs at 2,879. Watch for any change in the global market tone as stocks went close to their highs again, which may drag up sentiment and cryptocurrencies with it. Safe trades! Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

2025-06-12 23:30

Payment tech company Stripe ( STRIP ) announced on Thursday a deeper partnership with the commerce company Shopify ( NASDAQ: SHOP ) ( TSX: SHOP:CA ) to help the latter's merchants accept stablecoin payments. Stripe said Shopify merchants across 34 countries will be able to accept payments in USDC in a few weeks. Merchants are expected to have the option to receive stablecoin payments in their preferred local currency or transfer funds as USDC directly to an external wallet.

2025-06-12 22:54

Crypto exchange Coinbase Global ( NASDAQ: COIN ) will roll out if first branded credit card on the American Express ( NYSE: AXP ) network, it said on Thursday. The new Coinbase One Card is set to offer up to 4% bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) back on every purchase. Rewards will come alongside "unique benefits, offers, experiences, and protections through the American Express Network," Will Stredwick, senior vice president, Global Network Services at American Express said on stage at Coinbase's State of Crypto summit. The card will be exclusively available to Coinbase One members in the U.S., with the waitlist opened Thursday. Coinbase One members have mounted to over 1M since the monthly subscription product launched in 2023. "We see real potential in the combination of Coinbase and crypto with the Powerful Backing of American Express, and what the card offers is an excellent mix of what customers are looking for right now," Stredwick said.

2025-06-12 22:37

More on Coinbase, Bitcoin USD Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents at Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE Conference Transcript Bitcoin Trading Volume Surpasses 3-Day Average, Signalling Strong Buyer Conviction (Technical Analysis) Bitcoin: Tweezer Bottom Indicates A Reversal Is Possible (Technical Analysis) Coinbase adds Democratic political strategist David Plouffe to advisory council This is still the most hated V-shaped rally - Tom Lee

2025-06-12 21:58

More on Crypto Bitcoin Trading Volume Surpasses 3-Day Average, Signalling Strong Buyer Conviction (Technical Analysis) Bitcoin: Tweezer Bottom Indicates A Reversal Is Possible (Technical Analysis) How Bitcoin Is Becoming A Cornerstone Of American Economic Policy This is still the most hated V-shaped rally - Tom Lee Bakkt includes bitcoin, other digital assets in updated investment policy

2025-06-12 20:09

Summary MARA’s market cap is nearly matched by its $5.42 billion Bitcoin holdings, meaning investors value the mining business at a discount. MARA’s mining operation, adds more value annually in Bitcoin to the balance sheet than what the market appears to be valuing it. Investors can capture upside through new BTC mined monthly, valuation expansion in the mining business, or a BTC rally boosting existing BTC holdings. I have lately been quite interested in Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) Treasury Companies, both in terms of how these companies can obtain fiat capital on favorable terms to generate shareholder value, and in the potential opportunities to buy many of them at a discount relative to their BTC holdings and underlying operations. Regarding the first category, I have recently covered Strategy ( MSTR ), and each of its preferreds STRF ( STRF ), STRK ( STRK ), and, most recently, STRD ( STRD ), here , here , here , and here , respectively. Regarding the second category, back in March, I wrote how one can buy Semler Scientific's ( SMLR ) operations at a great discount relative to its BTC holdings. By the way, I think that opportunity is even greater now, given BTC's rally against SMLR's underperformance. Today, I am writing about an opportunity like the latter, as MARA Holdings ( MARA ) appears to trade at levels that allow investors to essentially acquire its mining business "for free." The Bitcoin Holdings vs. MARA's Market Cap As of writing this article, MARA's market cap sits around $5.8 billion, based on a share price of roughly $16.52 and about 352 million shares outstanding. In the meantime, the company holds 49,375 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $5.42 billion, with BTC flirting with $110,000 per coin. MARA BTC Holdings (BitcoinTreasuries.NET) If we do the math, that's about $15.41 in Bitcoin per share. Compare that to the stock's $16.52 price, and you're basically buying MARA's entire operating business (data centers, proprietary tech, etc.) for just about $1.1 per share, or $387 million. But wait! MARA has $2.44 billion in net debt (including the zero-coupon convertible notes), and it also has $1.56 billion in property and equipment, so by adding the differences as a liability, the market is valuing the mining business at just about $850 million. I will explain why this implies a discount in a moment. The valuation discount has widened as MARA's stock hasn't kept pace with BTC's rally. While Bitcoin has gradually gained in recent months, MARA's share price has more or less moved sideways. BTC is up ~58% over the past year, all while MARA stock is down ~15% over the same period. BTC vs. MARA 1 Year Return (Koyfin) But why? The Management Discount: Why Investors Are Skeptical From following the stock regularly and reading the comments of other online investors, MARA's discount appears to stem from a doubt about management. Investors are essentially slapping a "management discount" on MARA, due to doubts about its track record, and it all goes back quite some time. You may remember, for instance, that in 2022, power outages at its Montana facility and delays in scaling mining capacity were a major source of frustration for shareholders. On top of that, the $2 billion stock offering in March wasn't exactly welcomed by investors due to earlier fears of dilution, while the company's pivot into AI infrastructure raised questions about management's focus. And these are valid arguments. If MARA is now a BTC treasury company and raising money MSTR-like, why are they suddenly saying they want to explore becoming a base layer infrastructure provider for AI and high-performance computing? Adding fuel to the fire, some investors have called out CEO Fred Thiel, pointing to his vague communication. For example, in the Q1 earnings call , he dodged specifics on AI strategy. This has led the market to undervalue MARA's mining operations, pricing the stock as if its Bitcoin stash is pretty much its only asset. The Mining Business Is Worth... The BTC However, I believe the mining business is not worthless, or at least the mere $850 million implied book value (for MARA to trade at NAV). This is because of all the BTC accumulation that the mining operations deliver, which is profitable for the company. Last quarter, MARA mined 2,286 Bitcoin, down 19% from 2,811 the year before due to the halving and increased network difficulty. At a direct energy cost of $35,728 as of Q1 (ex-depreciation), MARA can make roughly $74,300 per BTC at current BTC prices. This is about $170 million in value creation in a single quarter. Note that MARA is actually going to post a loss in this scenario, as it incurs the expenses but holds the BTC, but book value-wise, it has created actual value. Last month, MARA's mining produced 950 Bitcoin, a 35% jump from April , thanks to a record 282 blocks won and a 58.3 EH/s hashrate. At $110,000 per coin, those 950 Bitcoins are worth $104.5 million. With a $35,728 cost per Bitcoin, each coin adds $74,300 in book value, or $71 million for the month, or $852 million annualized. I believe the market doesn't understand this and merely sees MARA's GAAP losses. You can also see how the mining business seems extremely cheaply priced, given the value MARA can create via its BTC accumulation strategy from its mining business. Within a year, the mined BTC minus the expenses incurred can top what the market is currently valuing the mining business. Even if you believe the balance sheet assets do not reflect real values on the equipment side, and the market is actually valuing the mining business at $1 billion to $1.5 billion, you are still getting it about 1X to 2X earnings at current Bitcoin price levels. A Significant Risk To Consider The most notable risk to MARA's investment case hinges on the price of BTC, which has a wild history. BTC has tanked by over 80% from its highs more than once. So, despite growing institutional adoption that could prevent such a major drop today, another crash could make mining unprofitable if Bitcoin falls below MARA's cost per coin, slashing balance sheet value and making its core operations effectively worthless for as long as mining remains unprofitable. Along with MARA's $2.44 billion in net debt, this could hammer the stock. The Bottom Line Overall, I would say it's tough to be bearish on MARA stock these days. You're essentially buying $5.42 billion in Bitcoin for $5.8 billion and getting a mining business that added $852 million in annualized Bitcoin value to the balance sheet for just $850 million. Of course, the annualized figure can change from month to month, and the mining business could be worth anywhere between $0.50 and $1.5 billion at current share prices based on how much you think the balance sheet assets are actually worth. Still, the idea is the same, as we are talking about a low single-digit multiple on that business at current BTC prices. In the meantime, if you are actually long BTC, you have another reason to hold the stock, even if the mining discount doesn't close. Since the stock is not trading far from its BTC holdings, you are holding the BTC and essentially getting a call option that the market will value the mining business above today's valuation. Lastly, regarding the potential pivot toward AI, you have to trust that the management will indeed allocate power only if that is more accretive than actually mining BTC. It's all speculative to comment on that today, but if we assume that management doesn't mess up here, nothing fundamentally changes in my thesis.

2025-06-12 20:01

More on Bitcoin USD, Ethereum USD Bitcoin Trading Volume Surpasses 3-Day Average, Signalling Strong Buyer Conviction (Technical Analysis) Bitcoin: Tweezer Bottom Indicates A Reversal Is Possible (Technical Analysis) How Bitcoin Is Becoming A Cornerstone Of American Economic Policy This is still the most hated V-shaped rally - Tom Lee Bakkt includes bitcoin, other digital assets in updated investment policy

2025-06-12 16:41

Summary Initiating Circle Internet with a 'Buy' rating and a fair value of $147 per share after a successful $1.05B IPO. Circle's USDC and EURC stablecoins have strong market adoption, offering high liquidity, transparency, and regulatory compliance advantages over traditional finance. I project Circle's revenue to grow 25% annually, driven by stablecoin market expansion, margin improvement, and operating leverage as expenses scale down. Key risks include competition from Tether, digital asset volatility, and evolving stablecoin regulations, but Circle remains well-positioned for long-term growth. Circle Internet ( CRCL ) launched its USDC, the stablecoin network in 2018, with nearly $6 trillion in on-chain transactions in 2025. The company’s stablecoins have gained market adoption among many payments and enterprise companies. I am initiating with a ‘Buy’ rating with a fair value of $147 per share. Circle Internet successfully raised $1.05 billion in recent IPO in June 2025. The company issues two payment stablecoins: USDC for US dollars and EURC for EURO currency. I think the Circle technology’s advantages can be summarized as follows: Stablecoins are highly liquid and can be redeemed for the underlying fiat currency. As such, these digital currencies could provide a crucial bridge between blockchain and traditional currency, as noted in its IPO prospectus . Unlike traditional finance, stablecoins can be easily transferred from one account to another, leading many payment companies to use stablecoins for daily transactions, remittances and trading purposes. USDC has gradually gained market adoptions over the past few years. As detailed in the table below, USDC is the second largest stablecoin by the total market cap. According to Circle Internet, its USDC processes around 29% of total market share. The management has prioritized the market adoption of USDC and EURC through heavy investments in platform innovations. Coin Market Cap Stablecoins are highly transparent and can satisfy the compliance and regulatory requirements, as these digital currencies are fully backed by currency reserves. Enterprises holding these stablecoins are less likely to encounter regulatory issues during accounting audits. In other words, CFOs are not risking their jobs to adopt stablecoins for their daily accounting activities. Lastly, Circle technology provides other liquidity services such as institutional minting, reserving, redemption and FX for its stablecoins. These additional services could enable institutional customers to fully leverage Circle technology’s platform and technology for implementing blockchain networks. I think Circle technology is still in the early stages of penetrating the huge market of cross-border payments, decentralized finance and e-commerce solutions. It is evident that stablecoins offer several advantages in terms of transparency, transaction fees and fast settlement. These benefits could position stablecoins for digital payments, cross-border transactions as well as other services such as e-commerce and merchant solutions, in my view. According to CoinDesk , the stablecoin market was equivalent to only 1% of US M2 money supply and 1% of total FX transactions in 2024, with potential growing to 10% of U.S. money supply and FX transactions. That means the overall market could potentially grow tenfold from the current size, which could lead to tremendous business growth for Circle technology. To be conservative, I assume stablecoin will reach 8% of money supply and FX transactions in a 10-year frame.timeframe. As such, I calculate the overall market will grow at a CAGR of 23%. I anticipate Circle technology will grow by 25% annually in revenue, slightly higher than the overall market growth driven by its scale and market share gains. It’s worth noting that Circle technology is a profitable business excluding some one-off costs, as detailed in the table below. They achieved a 9.7% of operating margin with $344 million in cash from operating activities. Circle Internet IPO Prospectus I forecast 200bps annual margin expansion, driven by 100bps from gross profits improvements, 50bps from lower marketing expenses and 50bps from operating leverage of total compensations. Circle technology has spent heavily on compensations, G&A and sales/marketing when they launched the USDC and EURC products. As the company scales, I forecast the overall expenses will gradually decline as a percentage of total revenue. I calculate the total operating costs will grow by 22% annually, leading to 200bps margin expansion. With these assumptions, DCF can be summarized as follows: Circle Internet DCF FCFF: Circle Internet DCF WACC = 11.4% assuming risk free 4.2%; beta 1.2; equity risk premium 6%; cost of debt 5%; equity $23 bn; debt $40 Mn; tax rate 20%. I set the terminal growth rate to be 5% aligned with the overall financial market growth. Discounting all the FCFF and adjusting net cash, the fair value is calculated to be $147 per share, as detailed below: Circle Internet DCF Key Risks While Circle technology has been growing rapidly, Tether remains the market leader in the stablecoin market, benefiti from first-mover advantages and a strong presence in emerging markets. As reported by the media, Tether considers to build its own U.S. payment network for stablecoins, creating a new payment token specifically for US market. Considering Tether’s size, Circle technology might face challenges in catching up with its rival. Circle technology held $31 million in digital assets on its balance sheet in FY24. The digital assets are highly volatile in terms of valuation; as such, their operational performance might be adversely affected if the price of its digital assets declines. For instance, the company incurred a $57 million loss in FY22 due to price fluctuations. Circle Internet IPO Prospectus Lastly, the stablecoin legislations are underway, as reported by the media. Specifically, the GENIUS Act and STABLE Act will implement regulations on stablecoin issuers, in terms of capital reserve, redemption, management, and safekeeping. In addition, the bill allows foreign issuers of stablecoins to issue in the US market, which could potentially increase the competitive landscape. Conclusion As the second largest player, Circle technology is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid adoption of stablecoins. I am initiating with a ‘Buy’ rating with a fair value of $147 per share.

2025-06-12 16:27

More on K Wave Media Ltd. K Wave Media: Ideally Positioned To Become The Metaplanet Of Korea Through Its Bitcoin Treasury Business Plan Financial information for K Wave Media Ltd.

2025-06-12 15:40