More on Apple, Tesla, etc. Nvidia: For This Stock, I Use Option Collars, Hand Over Fist (Rating Upgrade) Tesla's Robotaxi Revolution Begins In June - Growth May Already Be Priced In Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Does It Again Nvidia, OpenAI among big tech bringing Stargate AI project to UAE IonQ jumps as CEO tells Barron's it wants to become 'Nvidia of quantum computing'

2025-05-22 17:57

More on Basel Medical Group Ltd Basel Medical Group receives S$375 million contract to supply healthcare products Basel Medical to buy Singapore-based Bethesda Medical Financial information for Basel Medical Group Ltd

2025-05-22 16:36

More on Coinbase An Update On Coinbase's Q1 2025 Earnings (Rating Upgrade) Coinbase: Now Could Be A Great Time To Buy And Hold Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents at Annual JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference (Transcript) Market momentum surges with 400 of the S&P 500 stocks above 50-day moving average Riot Platforms expands credit facility with Coinbase to $200M

2025-05-22 16:17

More on Strategy There Is Currently No Good Argument In Favor Of MicroStrategy Saying (Micro) Strategy Is Just Bitcoin Is Like Saying Niagara Falls Is Just Water (Rating Upgrade) Strategy: The Bitcoin Bet That Doesn't Add Up Tidal to implement 1-for-20 reverse stock split for 2x short MSTR fund Strategy adds $764.9M worth of bitcoins last week

2025-05-22 15:13

More on Bitcoin USD Is Bitcoin About To Breakout? 3 Key Indicators Say Yes (Technical Analysis) (Rating Upgrade) Bitcoin: Maybe I Wasn't Wrong (Technical Analysis) Bitcoin Races Towards New All-Time Highs Asian indexes turn lower as concerns over U.S. debt mount

2025-05-22 15:06

Summary BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has entered the top 5 ETFs by net inflows in 2025, signaling strong investor demand. IBIT attracted $8.9 billion in inflows year-to-date, surpassing many established ETFs and highlighting growing mainstream acceptance of bitcoin exposure. There are concerns to consider, however, with signs of exhaustion in Bitcoin's weekly chart as well as a lack of demand for the other BTC ETFs in the US. I remain bullish BTC and by extension IBIT but think the top isn't terribly far away at this point. With Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) hitting a fresh all-time high of $110,000 per coin, capital flows into the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT ) are surging. Despite still personally having an affinity for fundamentals and usage, I've been making the case that Bitcoin's price has been entirely driven by capital flows for awhile. Demand from ETF buyers and from companies like Strategy ( MSTR )( STRF ) is what has been driving the coin's price. Thus, with a new all-time achieved on May 21st, we can look at metrics like net flow, supply, volume, and price moving averages to ascertain whether this is likely the start of a new leg that will take the coin much higher, or if it's more of a sign that we're close to the price top for this cycle. iShares Has Gone 'Full Pac-Man' Credit to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas for the 'full Pac-Man' characterization. What he's referring to is the IBIT ETF chewing up Bitcoin as though it were the vintage video game character eating dots in a maze. As of May 20th, IBIT had experienced $8.9 billion in net flow year to date: ETF Flows YTD (Eric Balchunas/X) That level of capital flow makes IBIT far and away the biggest beneficiary of investment demand relative to all of the other spot Bitcoin ETFs. Not only that, but IBIT has had the 5th largest year to date inflows of all ETFs . IBIT's hoard of BTC is now so large, that the 636k BTC held through IBIT is currently larger than the BTC supply held by the remaining US-based spot ETFs combined: Spot BTC Fund BTC Held USD Value Share of Supply iShares Bitcoin Trust 636,120 $69,798m 3.03% Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ( FBTC ) 199,840 $21,927m 0.95% Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) 187,870 $20,614m 0.90% ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( ARKB ) 49,166 $5,395m 0.23% Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ( BTC ) 42,718 $4,687m 0.20% Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ( BITB ) 38,268 $4,199m 0.18% VanEck Bitcoin Trust ( HODL ) 14,763 $1,620m 0.07% Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF ( BTCO ) 8,780 $963m 0.04% CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund ( BRRR ) 6,554 $719m 0.03% Franklin Bitcoin ETF ( EZBC ) 5,097 $559m 0.02% WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund ( BTCW ) 3,746 $411m 0.02% Sum ex-IBIT 556,802 $61,049m 2.65% Source: Bitcoin Treasuries, as of May 21st IBIT now controls more than 3% of BTC supply and holds more Bitcoin than Strategy. What I find so interesting about the surge in IBIT net flows this year is it is unique to this fund when factoring in the other spot ETFs in the US. Consider the year to date changes in supply held through each product: Fund BTC Balance 5/21/25 1/1/25 YTD Change iShares Bitcoin Trust 636,120 552,168 15.2% Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund 199,840 202,800 -1.5% Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 187,870 206,835 -9.2% ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF 49,166 46,729 5.2% Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust 42,718 38,342 11.4% Bitwise Bitcoin ETF 38,268 40,196 -4.8% VanEck Bitcoin Trust 14,763 13,716 7.6% Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF 8,780 8,780 0.0% CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund 6,554 8,846 -25.9% Franklin Bitcoin ETF 5,097 7,567 -32.6% WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund 3,746 3,841 -2.5% Source: Bitcoin Treasuries, as of May 21st The 15% growth in BTC year to date for IBIT is top among all funds and IBIT is one of just four US spot ETFs that has positive BTC-denominated net flow year to date. One of the other funds with positive net flow in 2025 is Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust. However, aggregating net flow totals for both of Grayscale's spot products has the issuer negative year to date as well. The VanEck fund's YTD net flow Is just 1,000 BTC year to date. ARK has done slightly better than that. But the point is, what IBIT is doing is impressive. Can This Continue? One thing that I think is worth paying attention to is the volume surge that took place in IBIT shares during the May 21st session. The fund did just under 99 million shares traded intraday. IBIT Daily Chart (TrendSpider) The chart above shows just three instances of at least 98 million shares traded intraday during green sessions so far this year; today is the third such instance. The prior two instances of green candle volume to this degree happened on days of significant directional pivots. The first such instance happened on January 23rd. IBIT subsequently fell by nearly 28% through the beginning of March. It happened again on April 7th. Much like what we saw in a volatile session for stocks that day, this spike signaled the low and IBIT has rallied more than 45% since. This spike is obviously coming after a large surge in price over a relatively short amount of time. The implication here being any directional price pivot in tandem with this volume surge would actually be to the downside. Taking a more long-term view of Bitcoin, the weekly chart might be exhibiting signs of impending exhaustion as well: BTC Monthly Chart (TrendSpider) I've marked moments where the 8 week MA flips over the 20 week MA with arrows. You can see this just happened for BTC this week (the week of May 19th). The last time it happened was the week of October 14th and the cross preceded a 56% surge over the next 2 months. However, at that time Bitcoin hadn't yet broken resistance and the coin was coming off seven months of sideways action. This time is a bit different. The coin is already working on a 7th consecutive green week and there is an obvious RSI-divergence concern to boot with RSI-14 quickly approaching overbought. Investor Takeaways While I don't think this BTC rally is over quite yet, I'm definitely getting a sense that we may be quickly careening to the peak for this cycle. Based on indicators that I follow, I wouldn't rule out a rally up to $120-125k BTC before we see a deep pullback in the coin. There are a variety of ways one can express that bullish BTC belief. My personal choice is FBTC. But there is no doubt that IBIT is the clear favorite among the spot ETFs in the US market. The fund has a competitive expense ratio, tremendous liquidity, and brand recognition. It also happens to be the outlier fund so far in 2025. Most of the spot ETFs have actually endured BTC-denominated outflow so far this year and IBIT currently controls more BTC supply than the rest of the funds combined. I'm of the view that this rally is getting close to its conclusion for this halving cycle. This coin goes as capital flows go and there is no question IBIT is acting like a BTC sponge - or as Pac-Man if you like that analogy better.

2025-05-22 15:00

More on Bitcoin Is Bitcoin About To Breakout? 3 Key Indicators Say Yes (Technical Analysis) (Rating Upgrade) Bitcoin: Maybe I Wasn't Wrong (Technical Analysis) Asian indexes turn lower as concerns over U.S. debt mount Bitcoin hits new all-time high of $109.4K

2025-05-22 14:28

Summary Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend, consistently making higher highs and higher lows, signaling a bullish market structure near all-time highs. Our custom Mean Deviation Detector shows Bitcoin has room to move higher before reaching extreme levels, supporting a bullish outlook. Bollinger Bands indicate expanding volatility, suggesting a breakout above $110,000 is likely, with a price target of $150,000. Despite some RSI caution, the risk/reward is attractive; we're upgrading BTC-USD to 'Buy' with a recommended stop loss around $75,000. Here at PropNotes , we’ve been crypto enthusiasts since 2016 when we purchased our first few Bitcoins ( BTC-USD ). Curiously, though, we didn’t start actually covering or writing about the leading digital asset until October of last year, when we rated BTC a ' Strong Buy '. In an article titled: " MicroStrategy Is Tapped Out, Short Shares And Buy Bitcoin Instead ", we made the case that buying physical Bitcoins directly would be a better option than buying into Strategy ( MSTR ), the infamous, leveraged, Bitcoin holding company. Since that call, Bitcoin is up roughly 50%, although in recent months, we ended up getting more conservative in the space due to the incredibly strong rally we'd seen in prices coming into 2025: Seeking Alpha Fast-forward to the present, however, and BTC has - once again, begun trading near all-time highs. It seems a good thing is hard to keep down. But is Bitcoin actually about to stage a major breakout? We think so. Today , we’ll break down the technical situation with Bitcoin, give our outlook, and explain why 3 of our favorite indicators are currently pointing to higher prices for BTC. Sound good? Let’s dive in. Market Structure The first - and perhaps strongest - piece of evidence that Bitcoin could be headed north can be seen when you take a look at how BTC has been trading over the last few years. When it comes to assessing any asset's technical position, we tend to look at market structure before all else. Market structure - for those who don’t know - is simply a way of describing the recent highs and lows that an asset has experienced over a given period of time. These levels, then, give clues as to where future price action could occur. In this case, if you take a look at Bitcoin on the weekly chart, you’ll find that the asset has been making a series of higher highs and higher lows, from roughly the start of 2023. This defines a clear up-trend in the price of Bitcoin: TradingView In the chart above, the green and red lines delineate recent highs and lows, respectively. This higher high, higher low price action - broadly - is the foundation upon which we can then layer on further observations. As a quick side note, Technical Analysis like this doesn’t work that well on most stocks, due to the fact that equities are driven primarily by economic value (earnings) as opposed to sentiment. However, assets with more vague economic value can be prone to trading in more traditional 'price patterns'. Looking more specifically at Bitcoin, we can see that in March 2022, the digital asset made local highs of roughly $48,000 which you can see denoted by the green horizontal ray below: TradingView From there, the asset traded lower, before slowly picking up steam into 2023 and 2024. Following a breakout in October 2023, the price went from $31,000 per coin to roughly $73,000 per coin. In the following period of consolidation, the lowest point (in August 2024) was roughly $49,000: almost exactly where bitcoin had made a local high two years prior : TradingView We can see the price pattern repeat again more recently with the rally in November, ultimately ending up at highs near $109,000. From there, the asset drew down to roughly $74,000, which is exactly where it peaked roughly a year earlier: TradingView As we can see, Bitcoin respects these important price levels in the market and uses them as guideposts for further price action. Now, Bitcoin has rallied back from $74,000 to $108,000, which is quite close to the asset's all-time highs. If history is any guide, then we’re expecting a consolidation leading into a breakout, or a direct breakout above 110k in the coming weeks and months. This is supported by a combination of the importance of these price levels, with the fact that we are in a categorical up-trend. Mean Deviation That said, of course, price action isn’t everything , and some indicators can provide additional clues as to what might happen going forward. Next, we'll take a look at a custom indicator we created, which we call the ' Mean Deviation Detector ' - or 'MDD' for short. This indicator plots the distance from Bitcoins current price, versus Bitcoin's ' average pricing zone '. The idea here is that the further away Bitcoin gets from this average pricing zone, the more likely it is to revert back to that average pricing zone. This may sound a little bit confusing, but in essence, market extremes often don’t stay that way for long - on either side of the market. Right now, if Bitcoin's recent rally from $74,000 to $108,000 presented an extreme market movement, we'd argue that it would be very difficult for Bitcoin to break out and make substantially new all-time highs. However, if you look at the chart, what you’ll find is that the MDD indicator remains relatively placid, only trading at roughly 21% above the coin's average pricing zone: TradingView If you look at where the MDD has traded historically, you’ll find that anything above 36% or higher would be an extreme and anything 26% or lower would be an extreme: TradingView This is our read on BTC, over the last decade or so. However, as you'll see, we’re still in this range, which means that there’s significant room for Bitcoin's price to move north in our view. Taken together with the market structure we outlined earlier, we'd argue that Bitcoin is setting up for a potential move higher. Bollinger Bands Finally, Bollinger bands are an incredibly useful indicator for a number of reasons. While they can be used to read a market in a number of different ways, in this case, the indicator's outer bands are what we’re most interested in. As you can see, with the indicators average settings, we’re getting an expanding cone of potential price action, which shows that more volatility could be on the way: TradingView This is as opposed to contracting bands, which would signal that whatever previous bout of volatility that happened was now over, and prices may be headed back towards consolidation. Right now, we don't see this. Bollinger Bands are indicating that more volatility could be on the way. When you add up the situation with Bitcoin, what you’ll find is an asset that's trading in a strong price trend near all-time highs. Not only that, but there’s considerable upside room if Bitcoin wants to move north before prices reach local 'extremes'. Finally, Bollinger Bands indicate that we could see a cone of increased price volatility going forward, which signals that a breakout could be imminent. For us, if you 'flip' the recent price action, you’ll see that the recent dip had a range of roughly $45,000, between 110k and 75k. Going forward, our price target for potential breakout would be around $150,000, which is $40k above previous all-time highs. This is standard when it comes to traditional Fibonacci price target setting. Risks Of course, there are some risks to our thesis. Not all indicators are indicating a potential breakout, chief among them being the relative strength index - or 'RSI'. The RSI is actually indicating that prices may form a 'double top', based on the fact that we’re seeing reduced strength and vigor on the RSI, while the price action has been equally strong in this recent run-up. As you can see on the chart below, the RSI is weak going into this all-time highs situation: TradingView This is a classic sign that prices might break out higher and then fail hard at a double top . Given how much respect and experience we have with this indicator, this is the strongest piece of evidence we have supporting the idea that whatever breakout does happen may end up being a 'trap' for investors. This is definitely something to consider, which is why any trade you put on for this breakout should be accompanied by a clearly defined stop loss. We'd argue that stop loss around $75k would give enough room for the trade to potentially work, while simultaneously controlling risk effectively. Summary Overall, despite the somewhat conflicting readings, we’d argue that, on balance, the technical information available is indicating that Bitcoin could be headed higher either after a period of consolidation or within the next few weeks. Trading this long with a potential stop loss around $75k per coin appears to be an attractive risk/reward opportunity in the market. As a result, we're also upgrading BTC-USD to a ' Buy '. Stay safe out there!

2025-05-22 09:30

Summary BITW offers investors exposure to 10 cryptocurrencies in a simple 'diversified' fund. The fund has a large allocation to Bitcoin, which could hurt returns if a true 'altseason' were to manifest. At 2.5%, the fund has a high expense ratio and doesn't stake any of the PoS assets under management, producing an opportunity cost relative to holding the assets directly. The top 4 assets make up over 97% of the fund's capital; none of those 4 assets are 'cheap' in my view. At a 14% discount to NAV, BITW could serve as a potential arbitrage trade if/when more spot ETFs cover the crypto market in the US. I've covered the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund ETF (BITW) for Seeking Alpha four times going back to 2023. My general thinking on the fund can be summed up in this way; I like it slightly better than its closest peer, the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund ETF (GDLC) because of a broader offering of assets, but I don't think it's the best way to play a rally in the altcoin market at this juncture. While the fund can occasionally serve as an interesting arbitrage opportunity when it trades a steep discount to net asset value, there are disadvantages with both the fund and its construction. In this update, we'll briefly review some of the pros and cons to holding BITW shares, as well as assess how I view the current valuation setup for the fund's top 4 holdings. Pros and Cons of BITW For speculators who want simple exposure to the digital assets in a single ticker, BITW works fine. As I see it, these are the top advantages of BITW over something like GDLC: BITW GDLC AUM $1.44b $775m NAV Per Share $70.90 $48.81 Market Price $60.83 $42.40 Discount to NAV 14.2% 13.1% BTC Weighting 78.0% 79.5% Fund Holdings 10 5 Sources: Grayscale and Bitwise as of May 20th Closing Prices Not only does BITW have a slightly bigger discount to NAV at 14.2% currently, but the fund also offers exposure to more assets than GDLC and has slightly less reliance on BTC for fund performance. With roughly double the AUM than that of GDLC, BITW has strong liquidity and gets a 'B+' liquidity grade from Seeking Alpha. As I see it, there are three important disadvantages to holding a fund like BITW over alternatives; expense ratio, asset weighting, and opportunity cost. At a 2.5% expense ratio, BITW is way too expensive for what is essentially a passively managed fund that is nearly 80% Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ). Bitcoin Dominance 5/21/25 (CoinGlass) Bitcoin's dominance of the $2.06 trillion digital asset market is 61.5% per CoinGlass data. While this is obviously a large share of the crypto market, BITW and GDLC are both closer to 80% BTC. To be sure, the overwhelming majority of the assets in the cryptocurrency market are entirely uninvestable. Thus, over-weight BTC makes sense. But there are assets held within BITW that I do think could be long-term successes and even potentially outperform BTC over the next 10 to 20 years. In that regard, choosing BITW over something like a self-directed crypto-IRA might not make sense for long-term investors who have a willingness to open such an account - and there are several providers. Another potential issue with BITW is the opportunity cost of holding stake-able assets dormant in a fund that isn't generating yield. Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) and Solana ( SOL-USD ) collectively make up nearly 15% of BITW positioning. Each of those assets are stake-able for yield and provide investors a positive real yield after token emissions inflation. It is anticipated that staking could soon be permitted in US-based crypto ETFs under the current administration. If such products enter the market, BITW could theoretically trade at a deeper discount to NAV. Top Holdings Valuation Assessment The fund always has 10 assets under management, though those assets with smaller allocations do often change. As of May 20th, BITW asset weightings are as follows: BITW Holdings 5/20/25 (Bitwise) I've already mentioned the large weighting to BTC. From there, ETH commands 11%, XRP ( XRP-USD ) claims 5%, and SOL comes in at 3.2%. With less than 2% combined allocation to the bottom five assets in the fund, I'm not going to spend much time on those networks. However, the top 4 coins in the fund do have a meaningful allocation and represent more than 97% of BITW. We'll take a look at network valuation metrics for those funds and examine what, if any, alternatives there may be for investors who want larger exposure to those assets than what is currently provided by Bitwise. We already know BITW trades at a discount to the fund's liquidation value. But what about the assets themselves? Can we justify such coin prices based on fundamental usage? I've covered Bitcoin's valuation in prior SA pieces. My personal view is that the NVT ratio is a decent way to assess BTC valuation because it utilizes the coin's market cap as well as the dollar-denominated value transferred over the network. BTC Price vs 30 Day Average NVT ( Coin Metrics ) The multi-year trend in BTC's 30-Day average NVT ratio is admittedly not a great one. What this shows is that over the longer term, as BTC's price moves higher, the NVT ratio generally does as well. That said, at 186 currently, the NVT ratio is well-off highs from last summer. I would personally like to see this ratio come down even further. But what I find to be a positive sign currently is the price rise in BTC near the end of last year was accompanied by a deep drop in NVT ratio. This would indicate that the coin price wasn't outgrowing the transferred value. In my view, NVT is good for networks that intend to be 'payment chains.' Because of this, we could choose to view XRP through this lens as well: BTC vs XRP NVT Ratio ( Coin Metrics ) Believe it or not, XRP was actually cheaper than BTC based purely on NVT ratio for most of the last two and half years. While the 220 ratio reading for XRP currently is back ahead of BTC, the long-term trend for XRP's NVT valuation has been quite opposite that of BTC. I'm not arguing either of these coins are 'cheap' based on this metric - quite the opposite, actually. But I think these can be helpful in showing long-term price vs usage trends. For the smart contract chains, fees are a meaningful part of the underlying economics of the networks. There, I like to look at price to fees ratios of the chains: Weekly Circulating P/F Ratios (Token Terminal) Token Terminal's data shows Ethereum is trading at over 760x fees. Based on this metric, Ethereum is now valued more richly than NEAR Protocol ( NEAR-USD ). Solana, which has been cheaper than Ethereum on a circulating P/F multiple since October, is also seeing the ratio generally moving in the wrong direction. At 136x fees currently, Solana has seen significant multiple expansion since February. What Alternatives to BITW Are There? I've already mentioned that investors who have a willingness to open self-direct crypto IRAs can certainly do that. In those types of accounts, there are typically no storage fees, but transaction fees can be high for those who are active traders. There are usually dozens of trade-able digital assets, and it would be quite easy to overweight most of the top 'altcoins' in the market if one were so inclined. However, not everyone wants to open an additional account due to either the inconvenience or the potential personal data security concern - each of which are justifiable in my view. Can BITW's current digital asset exposure be mimicked by purchases of single-asset products that are already available in the market? Possibly. Asset Spot ETF? Closed-End Fund? Leveraged Fund? Bitcoin Yes Yes Yes Ethereum Yes No Yes XRP No No Yes Solana No Yes No Cardano ( ADA-USD ) No No No Sui ( SUI-USD ) No No No ChainLink ( LINK-USD ) No Yes No Avalanche ( AVAX-USD ) No No No Litecoin ( LTC-USD ) No Yes No Polkadot ( DOT-USD ) No Yes No Source: Author's compiled data, funds must be secondary market trade-able not only available through private placement As far as I can tell, only three of the assets in BITW are lacking direct exposure through some combination of spot ETFs, closed-end funds, or leveraged funds. Collectively, those three assets make up less than 2% of BITW. So it is theoretically possible to self-direct exposure to the majority of the assets in BITU through a standard brokerage account utilizing the single-asset products that are already available in the market. Closing Thoughts For those who want a simple way to get exposure to some of the top assets in the cryptocurrency market, BITW will work perfectly fine. Potential investors should keep in mind that there are downsides to getting exposure in this way. In my view, the expense ratio is too high, 78% exposure to BTC defeats the purpose of a 'diversified' fund, and there is an opportunity cost to holding stake-able assets in a fund that doesn't stake them for yield. That said, at a 14% discount to NAV, BITW is somewhat interesting as a potential arbitrage trade should be more of these assets get spot ETFs in the US. While I don't personally hold this fund at this time, it's one of which I've held in the past and would consider holding again if the discount gets to parity with the non-BTC asset allocation of the fund. That said, the discount arbitrage can close simultaneously to a drop in share price. That's a major risk to consider. I would argue that none of the assets in BITW could realistically be considered 'cheap' based on network usage levels.

2025-05-22 05:45