An unusual BTC price reaction to MicroStrategy’s latest confirmation of increased BTC exposure accompanies the week’s first Wall Street open.
CoinTelegraph 2024-12-02 17:27
According to a recent report by Bitfinex, November proved to be a notable month for Bitcoin, despite a brief period of volatility. The cryptocurrency encountered its most significant pullback since
CoinOtag 2024-12-02 17:09
Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) potential push toward $100,000 might face further delays as the asset will likely encounter volatility later in the week driven by macroeconomic signals. This anticipated volatility arises as Bitcoin’s chart pattern shows the maiden digital asset is consolidating, and this week’s labor report data might not cast the asset in the spotlight, according to professional cryptocurrency trading expert Michaël van de Poppe in an X post on December 2. Poppe suggested that volatility caused by labor market data could push Bitcoin below $90,000, potentially creating new entry opportunities. “Bitcoin is nicely consolidating, and it’s labor data week. That isn’t the best period for Bitcoin to shine, through which the optimal spot for entries (if corrections happen) is coming back into play,” he said. Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView Suppose Bitcoin fails to break the six-figure resistance and labor market dynamics trigger a price drop, he predicts the asset may find support at $85,000–$88,000, levels he considers ideal for accumulation. Regarding the impact of the upcoming report, strong data may signal economic resilience but also raise inflation concerns, increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes and reducing the appeal of risky assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, weaker data could ease inflation fears and boost risk assets. After October’s jobs report fell short, with only 12,000 jobs added (compared to a forecast of 100,000), expectations for November are bullish . Beyond the labor market, historical data suggests Bitcoin often dips at the start of each month, followed by a strong rebound. Insights shared by Bitcoin commentary platform Bitcoin Archive in a December 2 X post , this trend has persisted for six months. December appears to follow suit, with BTC retreating to trade near $95,000 after approaching the $100,000 mark. Such short-lived corrections may present investment opportunities. Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView Bitcoin to start parabolic run Despite the bearish sentiment at the start of December, historical price trends indicate that this month could also signal the beginning of a parabolic move for Bitcoin. In this case, decentralized finance ( DeFi ) researcher CryptoNobler suggested that this December might usher in Bitcoin’s largest bull run yet, with conditions resembling the rallies of 2016 and 2020. Key drivers of this optimism include expected pro-Bitcoin policies in the United States, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, a potential reversal of China’s cryptocurrency ban, and a $16 billion FTX payout scheduled for early 2025. Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: CryptoNobler Overall, Bitcoin’s trajectory toward a new record high appears to have stalled. The asset is striving to hold the $95,000 support level to keep the $100,000 target within reach. This pullback has prompted figures like author and investor Robert Kiyosaki to caution about a potential crash to $60,000, which he views as an accumulation opportunity. Bitcoin price analysis Bitcoin was trading at $95,730 at press time, showing daily and weekly losses of 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold On a technical level, Bitcoin remains well-positioned for an upside move, supported by its position above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages ( SMA ). However, caution is warranted, as the Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) of 67 and the Fear & Greed Index of 80 (Extreme Greed) suggest the market may be nearing overbought conditions. Featured image via Shutterstock The post Why this week ‘isn’t the best for Bitcoin to shine’ appeared first on Finbold .
Finbold 2024-12-02 17:03
Which top coins can rise at beginning of December?
U.Today 2024-12-02 17:03
Michael Saylor’s bold call for tech giants to embrace Bitcoin is raising eyebrows amid growing concerns over corporate cash management strategies. Saylor argues that major companies are missing a pivotal
CoinOtag 2024-12-02 16:36
The mindshare of XRP and older altcoins has grown significantly in the last 24 hours. This time around, the list includes older coins and tokens, re-entering consideration after the meme craze. Kaito’s mindshare metric is one of the timely indicators measuring social media exposure for all assets. The XRP rally coincided with the biggest daily gains in social media mindshare. However, XRP was not the only asset from older bull markets to gain interest. Several coins and tokens grew their mindshare, knocking off meme token stars. While peak attention remains focused on Solana (SOL), former gainers like Avalanche (AVAX), Hedera (HBAR), and Litecoin (LTC) have also seen revivals. Still, all of these tokens had a weaker mindshare compared to XRP. XRP is currently ranked 1st for mindshare. Yes, you read that correctly. pic.twitter.com/bSKheApH5C — Kaito AI 🌊 (@_kaitoai) December 2, 2024 There is no consensus on which narrative will emerge as the most appealing for investors, but older tokens show they can still rally in a way similar to meme assets. In contrast, former social media star Popcat (POPCAT) saw its sentiment measure diminish, with its mindshare metric shrinking in the red for the first time in five months. The latest shift of attention to older altcoins follows a recent focus on AI agents and AI content accounts. The move into “dinosaur altcoins” shows a taste for risk for any and all coins and tokens, with the expectation of briefly outperforming BTC. Sentiment shifts closer to altcoin season In 2024, the focus on meme tokens caused speculation that some assets would never recover their previous highs, or even rally again. However, the biggest gainers since the US Presidential election rally were the most unexpected coins and tokens. In addition to XRP, the biggest gainers also included tokens with large communities and established cults of followers over the years. The list of projects includes Stellar (XLM), Algorand (ALGO), Hedera (HBAR), Cardano (ADA), and even IOTA. Those projects all had triple-digit gains since November 6, far outperforming the 37% gains for BTC. The recent rally for the so-called “dinosaur altcoins” showed the main volumes are flowing into XRP, XLM, ADA, and a handful of other assets. If these coins and tokens begin to slide, the earnings may roll over to another batch of altcoins and tokens. The projects on the list had ambitious goals of onboarding businesses, finance services, or serving as the platform for the Internet of Things (IOTA). While most of the promises remained unfulfilled, those platforms also retained their long-term true believers. Altcoin season index just below cut-off line The rising mindshare for older altcoins coincides with the growing altcoin season index. The index measures how much the top 100 altcoins and tokens outperform BTC. The index took a week to rally from under 50 points to 73 points on December 2. The altcoin season index has a cut-off of 75 points to announce the official cut-off level. The altcoin season is on the verge of being officially announced after the index breaks above 75 points. | Source: Altcoin Season Index The index growth also coincided with an uptick in Google searches for “altcoin season.” Interest grew from 4 points in October to 100 points in December, as hopes for more actively growing assets increased. The altcoin “buy” signal based on Dune Analytics data is also pointing to a cautious expectation for outperforming BTC. Altcoin season traditionally follows a BTC all-time high and subsequent lowering of BTC’s dominance. Just days after achieving peak dominance, BTC fell to 55.8% of the total crypto market capitalization. The conditions seem to align for an altcoin rally, as trading volumes shifted to other markets. The appeal of altcoins is in their well-established status and liquid listings. For now, even the best outperforming meme tokens only last for a few days. Altcoins, on the other hand, have gone through a long period of accumulation, and are starting to form vertical rallies. One of the setbacks for altcoins may be long-term holders turning into sellers after waiting for years to breakeven or make a profit. An altcoin season may only last a few months, but it is a risky and active time for trading. Before altcoins started their vertical trajectory, attention also turned to other sources of growth. NFT and NFT markets increased their mindshare. Tokenless projects with the potential for an airdrop also received more social media mentions. Land a High-Paying Web3 Job in 90 Days: The Ultimate Roadmap
Cryptopolitan 2024-12-02 16:21
The recent push for national Bitcoin reserves marks a significant shift in the dialogue surrounding cryptocurrencies, with many governments exploring this potential investment avenue. As countries like El Salvador and
CoinOtag 2024-12-02 16:20
Summary Trump's pro-crypto stance includes creating a Bitcoin reserve, which could diversify the US's financial assets. If Trump's Bitcoin Strategic Reserve plan is implemented, Bitcoin could reach $400,000 per coin within five years due to increased demand. Establishing a Bitcoin reserve would be relatively simple, leveraging the 200,000+ Bitcoin the US government already holds from seizures. Long term, Bitcoin could reach $1.5-2 million per coin in 10-15 years, making it a valuable part of a diversified investment portfolio. Thesis If Donald Trump's plan to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve is implemented and other countries quickly follow suit, it would significantly increase overall demand for Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and associated investment options like the iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ). This could make Bitcoin worth $400,000 per coin within the next 5 years. Trump's Policy Positions on Crypto Trump used to be vocally anti-crypto; as recently as 2019, he tweeted that he was "not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." However, Trump reversed course during his presidential campaign this year. Although he didn't mention cryptocurrency in any of the 15 high-level policy positions on his website, his campaign accepted cryptocurrency donations and he frequently made pro-crypto statements. Most notably, he gave the keynote speech at the Bitcoin Conference in July, where he promised to make the USA the "crypto capital of the planet." More specific ideas mentioned by Trump and his advisors include broadly de-regulating the industry by firing anti-crypto regulators like SEC chair Gary Gensler, creating a pro-crypto advisory council within the government, and potentially eliminating capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by USA companies. These ideas are exciting for the crypto industry more broadly, and I plan to cover them in future articles. However, none of these ideas are likely to have much impact on Bitcoin, which even Gary Gensler admits is a decentralized commodity that has no issuer and is already loosely regulated. The policy proposal that's most interesting for Bitcoin investors is the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, which is the focus of this article. US Government Reserves The US government keeps reserves of key commodities such as gold and oil. The oil reserve serves the functional purpose of smoothing out supply shocks. For example, the government will release oil reserves when it believes that oil prices are too high and add to the reserves by purchasing oil when prices are relatively lower. The reason for having a gold reserve is more nuanced. At one point, the US dollar was backed by gold, so the government had to have gold in order to allow citizens to exchange their gold-backed dollars for real gold. Although the dollar is no longer backed by gold, the government still holds substantial gold reserves. This is because gold is a scarce and inflation-resistant asset that has historically retained value better than fiat money. Having gold as part of a diversified balance sheet protects the nation's financial position in a variety of economic conditions. For example, the government is able to get huge loans at favorable rates in part because its financial stability is backed up by gold reserves and other assets besides USD. Even if the world abruptly abandoned the USD as a global currency, the government would theoretically still be able to use its gold and other assets to pay down debt. Other countries also have gold reserves for similar reasons, so to some degree it's also a standoff. No politician wants to be the one to sell off their country's reserves, only to watch gold's price increase later. The Case for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Trump has proposed creating a Bitcoin reserve similar to the existing gold reserve. Senator Cynthia Lummis already introduced a bill called the BITCOIN Act to achieve this last July, but it hasn't been passed yet. The proposed bill would have the US Treasury purchase 1 million Bitcoin (~5% of Bitcoin's total supply) over 5 years, and then hold the coins for at least 20 years or use them to pay down federal debt. The case for creating this reserve is largely similar to the case for maintaining the gold reserve. In order to secure the nation's financial position in a wider variety of scenarios, the government should diversify its assets to include some Bitcoin. Just like gold, Bitcoin is a decentralized and inflation-resistant asset that might retain value better than USD in some cases. While having a Bitcoin reserve and a gold reserve may seem redundant, Bitcoin has some unique properties relative to gold. This includes the ability to be transferred over the internet (portability), better divisibility, a soon-to-be lower supply inflation rate, and historically faster price appreciation. In some situations, such as a temporary outage in digital USD settlement systems, these properties would make Bitcoin more useful than gold. Just as governments want to ensure that their nation has its fair share of the gold supply (and its fair share of critical industries like semiconductors, car manufacturing, etc.), they should also try to ensure that they get their fair share of the limited Bitcoin supply. After all, Bitcoin is already one of the 10 most valuable assets in the world , and an increasingly important part of global wealth and monetary systems. The Logistics of Creating the Reserve Top Bitcoin holders November 2024 (River.com) Some may be surprised to learn that the U.S. Government is already the world's 7th largest Bitcoin holder. It acquired Bitcoin by seizing assets in criminal investigations, most famously seizing over 100,000 Bitcoin from a combination of the online black market The Silk Road and the hackers of the Bitfinex crypto exchange. Historically, the government has slowly sold off Bitcoin after acquiring it, but that hasn't stopped it from holding some Bitcoin for over 10 years, effectively maintaining an informal reserve. In this sense, establishing an official reserve is actually quite simple; the government would just declare the 200,000+ currently held Bitcoin as a formal reserve and stop selling it. This reserve would only be about 1/5th the size of the 1 million coin reserve proposed in the BITCOIN Act, but it would be a relatively uncontroversial start. At current Bitcoin prices (~$100,000), acquiring an additional 800,000 Bitcoin wouldn't be unreasonably expensive or risky for a country as large as the USA. The resulting $0.1 trillion allocation would still be a drop in the bucket relative to the government's estimated $200 trillion in total assets, $0.6 trillion in gold reserves, and $4.4 trillion in annual revenue. Even if Bitcoin prices significantly declined after the reserve was established, it wouldn't have much impact on the USA's overall financial position. Better Now Than Later As mentioned above, Bitcoin is still a relatively small asset compared to the USA's vast wealth and tax revenue. However, the logistics of funding the reserve are still somewhat complex, and they will become more complex if Bitcoin's market cap continues to increase. The BITCOIN bill proposes funding the reserve with USD from Federal Reserve banks, essentially rebalancing the nation's assets to be lighter on USD and heavier on Bitcoin. However, the bill doesn't provide details on what to do if Bitcoin's price continues rising during the 5-year purchase period. Even from current Bitcoin prices (which are substantially higher than when the bill was introduced in July), I model that the proposal in the bill would only be sufficient to fund purchases of 400,000 Bitcoin (instead of the proposed 800,000+). If Bitcoin's price continues to rise, some later purchases may require funding from more controversial sources such as tax revenue or the sale of other reserves like gold. The least controversial way to address this would be to update the bill to use a fixed amount of USD to purchase Bitcoin each year, instead of using a variable amount of USD to purchase a fixed number of Bitcoin. While that may mean that the USA would fail to acquire 1 million Bitcoin within 5 years, it might make the bill easier to pass and fund. No doubt, other less wealthy countries are doing similar math and feeling a greater degree of urgency to establish their reserves at current prices before the USA begins exerting buying pressure. It's been reported that at least Brazil, Poland, and Russia are considering establishing reserves. El Salvador already has a Bitcoin reserve. Other countries including China and Bhutan own Bitcoin but haven't established formal reserves (similar to the USA's current state). Notably, many of these countries are not allies of the USA, which only adds to the pressure that each country will feel to acquire Bitcoin ahead of rivals. Bitcoin's Updated Price Target Price is a function of supply and demand. If the USA and other countries were to establish strategic reserves of Bitcoin, this would by definition increase demand for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's supply is fixed at 21 million. As a result, we can conclude that Bitcoin's price is likely to increase if the strategic reserve is established. Demand is difficult to model precisely, and any model has risk of being inaccurate. For my model in this article, I'll predict Bitcoin's demand and price based on a comparison with gold. The inspiration for this comparison is that having 1 million Bitcoin would give the government ownership of about 5% of Bitcoin's supply, which is similar to their ownership of the total mined gold supply ( 3-4% at 8,100 tons). Based on this, I model that other large governments/institutions that own a meaningful portion of the gold supply would quickly follow the USA's lead and aim to purchase a proportional amount of the Bitcoin supply. From this, we can model a couple of scenarios with different price targets: Bear case ($65,000): Strategic reserves aren't established and Bitcoin's price falls back to pre-election levels. It's worth noting that $65,000 is also close to the previous 4-year halving cycle's max price from 2021. Historically, Bitcoin has not meaningfully fallen below the previous cycle's high, so I view $65,000 as a major resistance point that is unlikely to be broken. Bull case ($400,000): Central banks and investors increase demand for Bitcoin until it has the same market cap as gold. Formula: (current BTC price) * (gold market cap) / (Bitcoin market cap) * (% of gold held by investors/central banks) Application: $95,000 * 17.8 / 1.9 * 0.45 = 400,500 (round to 400,000). It's anyone's guess as to which of these cases is more likely. I won't pretend to have inside information about the incoming administration's plans. However, my relatively uninformed guess is that we'll see something along these lines: Bitcoin's price rises to $140,000-$200,000 in 2025 as positive sentiment surrounding the reserve allows the current bull run to continue. The reserve takes longer than expected to implement or takes a disappointing initial form, causing a retrace to $70,000 in 2026-2027. The reserve finally takes off in 2028-2029, perhaps due to pressure from other countries starting to implement their own reserves. This allows Bitcoin to near the $400,000 target. This prediction of more volatility but eventually higher prices is based on a few considerations: Crypto isn't one of the Trump administration's main policy positions and is generally a controversial political topic, which will slow down legislation. Even if the reserve is implemented quickly, the buying pressure will be spread out over many years. Bitcoin has followed a remarkably predictable 4-year chart pattern. As the famous saying goes, this will continue to happen until it doesn't. However, if you believe in Bitcoin, I wouldn't try to time the market based on this prediction. Rather, I would hold long term with the expectation that prices will eventually be higher than they are today. The Long-Term Target Short-term price predictions are difficult, and even 5 years is relatively short term when it comes to a volatile asset like Bitcoin. In the long term (10+ years), I believe that even my bull case is too conservative. We can apply the following multipliers to the $400,000 target to get a longer-term target: x2 because we've ignored the ~50% of demand for gold that comes from jewelry, which can also be considered an investment. x2 every 10 years based on gold's historical returns, due in part to inflation. A small additional multiplier from the fact that Bitcoin's supply inflation rate will soon be lower than gold's, and that demand for Bitcoin has historically grown faster than demand for gold. After applying these multipliers, I model a price of 1.5-2 million per coin in 10-15 years. Despite being near all-time highs, Bitcoin still has the potential to 10x in 10 years. That said, Bitcoin is a volatile and risky asset that also has the potential to lose investors' money, especially in the short term. Conclusion Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are complex topics, and their prices are influenced by many factors besides just the Bitcoin reserve. I've written extensively about these topics more generally in past articles and my recently published book Decoding Cryptocurrency . The price formulas I shared above may be over-simplified to focus on the reserve, but I believe that Bitcoin's price will continue to appreciate in the long term. As such, Bitcoin is an important part of a diversified investment portfolio.
Seeking Alpha 2024-12-02 16:16
MARA Holdings has taken significant steps in the Bitcoin market, emphasizing the crucial need for increased government involvement in cryptocurrency mining. The company recently disclosed a substantial investment exceeding $600
CoinOtag 2024-12-02 16:13
MicroStrategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition underscores the growing trend of corporate investment in cryptocurrency, highlighting significant market movements. With the recent purchase of 15,400 BTC, MicroStrategy has solidified its position as
CoinOtag 2024-12-02 16:05
These MARA convertible notes will be without interest, except for special interest provided upon issuance and payable semi-annually. Read original article on coincu.com
Coincu 2024-12-02 16:02
MicroStrategy announced that it bought 15,400 Bitcoin for $1.5 billion between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1.
CoinTelegraph 2024-12-02 16:00
Why this week ‘isn’t the best for Bitcoin to shine’
